The process of adopting the 2025 budget in France appears to be chaotic, with a new sensitive phase ahead as the defense budget is examined. The law of military programming plans to allocate around 400 billion euros to the armed forces until 2030, but there are concerns about potential renunciations due to various management biases in the process. The Ministry of Defense has stated that the 2025 budget aligns with the military programming law, but this does not guarantee protection against serious challenges that may arise. One main issue is the funding for external operations (Opex), where negotiations are expected to be difficult.
The Ministry of Defense has a history of budgeting only around half of the actual cost of external operations, relying on interministerial solidarity to cover additional costs that are deemed difficult to predict. However, the political crisis following the dissolution of the National Assembly in June has impacted this method, with only 570 million euros provisioned for Opex in the 2025 budget, compared to the initially planned 800 million euros. Despite a reduction in military presence in Africa, the costs of operations have continued to rise due to reinforcements sent to various regions, such as Jordan, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Red Sea, in response to conflicts such as the war between Israel and Hamas.
The cost of French military engagement in Eastern Europe, particularly in countries like Romania, Estonia, and Poland, is not included in the Opex budget for 2025. These expenses are currently classified separately as “operational missions”. A report by the Court of Auditors in April highlighted that deployments in these areas incurred additional costs of 560.5 million euros in 2023, which are expected to continue in the future. The lack of budget provisions for such essential operations raises concerns about the sustainability of France’s military activities in the region.
The future of French military operations and funding remains uncertain as the challenges in budget allocations continue to pose significant hurdles. With ongoing conflicts and security threats in various regions, it is crucial for the Ministry of Defense to address the discrepancies in budget planning and prioritize the resources needed for effective military engagement. The upcoming discussions and decisions regarding the defense budget will play a crucial role in shaping the capabilities and readiness of the French armed forces in the years to come.
In conclusion, the French defense budget for 2025 is facing scrutiny and challenges due to discrepancies in budget planning and funding allocations, particularly for external operations. The Ministry of Defense must address these issues to ensure the sustainability of military activities and resources. The political crisis and uncertainty in budget provisions highlight the need for strategic planning and prioritization of defense resources to meet the evolving security needs of the country. As the discussions on the defense budget progress, it is essential for the government to consider the long-term implications and consequences of the decisions made on the capabilities and readiness of the armed forces.
