The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has reported that July marked the 14th consecutive month of record-breaking heat, setting a new record for the longest hot streak in the past 175 years. The only other hot streak in history that comes close to this longevity spanned 12 months from May 2015 to May 2016. Since then, the subsequent hot streaks have been significantly shorter, with the third and fourth longest streaks only lasting six months each.
Many of these hot streaks have been influenced by El Niño, a natural phenomenon that causes warm surface waters to spread across the tropical Pacific Ocean, temporarily raising the global average temperature. Its cyclical counterpart, La Niña, results in a cooling effect as the warm waters recede to the western side of the Pacific. While the most recent El Niño ended in May, the tropical Pacific is currently in a neutral state, neither experiencing El Niño nor La Niña.
Despite the end of the recent El Niño, the Earth’s temperature continues to rise due to human-induced climate change. Climatologists have observed a steady increase in temperatures since the mid-1970s, with fluctuations associated with El Niño and La Niña events. While each event may temporarily impact global temperatures, the overall trend is a gradual increase.
The ongoing global heat streak is expected to end sometime in the next several months, possibly with the onset of a La Niña event forecasted for the fall. The margin between July 2024 and the previous year was very close, indicating the possibility of another hot month ahead. The persistence and extent of the record warm Atlantic Ocean waters have been surprising to the climate science community.
Looking ahead, with the anticipation of future El Niño events and the continued upward temperature trend, it is likely that multiple consecutive months of record-breaking temperatures may occur in the future. The collective efforts of individuals in mitigating climate change will have a significant impact in preventing further temperature increases. While there may not be a specific threshold for a point of no return, it is crucial to take action now to avoid irreversible consequences in the future.
