In the first round of the 2022 presidential election, Emmanuel Macron received nearly 28% of the votes. This initial base of support, while large, may have been inflated due to strategic voting in the final days of the election. A study conducted with 2,000 respondents who voted for Macron in the first round of the election sought to understand the current 16% approval rating of the Renaissance party and the potential for a rebound.
Through analyzing the intentions of the lost Macronist voters, it was found that 50% abstained from voting, while among the remaining 50% who did vote, 56% supported the Renaissance party, 16% the Socialist Party-Place publique list, 7% the Republicans list, 6% the National Rally list, and 3% the Ecologist list. By examining the socio-demographic profile, European identity, political positioning, and economic and social beliefs of these voters, distinct categories of Macronist voters were identified as Macron abstainers, Macron Macronists, Macron socialists, and Macron Republicans.
There is a clear demographic difference between Macronists who continued to vote in 2024 and those who did not. Those who did vote, regardless of their specific choice, were generally older, with 54% of Macrono-Republicans, 60% of Macrono-Socialists, and even 68% of Macrono-Macronists being over 60 years old. In contrast, only 32% of Macrono-Abstentionists were in this age group.
Further analysis of these voter segments revealed interesting findings. Macrono-Macronists were more likely to have a favorable view of the current state of their lives, while Macrono-socialists were characterized by a strong European identity and were more likely to support social welfare measures. Macrono-Republicans, on the other hand, were more conservative and had a lower level of satisfaction with their lives. Macrono-abstentionists, who made up the largest group, were generally younger and had a more negative perception of their current life satisfaction.
The 2022 Macronist voters who decided to abstain from voting in 2024 had a notably different political profile compared to those who remained engaged. Macrono-Abstentionists were less satisfied with their personal lives compared to the other groups and often had lower incomes. Macrono-socialists were more supportive of social welfare policies and tended to be younger, while Macrono-Republicans were more conservative and generally dissatisfied with their lives. Macrono-Macronists, who were the most likely to vote, had a positive view of their current state of life and tended to be older.
Overall, understanding the diverse profiles and motivations of Macronist voters is crucial for analyzing the current electoral landscape and predicting potential shifts in support for the Renaissance party. By delving into the socio-demographic, political, and ideological characteristics of these voters, a more nuanced understanding of the dynamics and trends within this voter base can be obtained.
