Analysts are questioning what a realistic “victory” for Ukraine against Russia could look like, despite the upcoming U.S. aid package that will provide new weapons supplies. The past few months have highlighted the risks of Kyiv’s dependence on military aid from the U.S., and there is a lack of common vision between Kyiv and its allies regarding what a Ukrainian victory entails. While Kyiv aims to liberate all territories occupied since 2014, many believe this goal is unrealistic in the short to medium term. As the share of the Ukrainian population willing to consider territorial concessions for peace rises, discussions about settlement options may gain traction in 2024.
Kyiv is steadfast in its goal to liberate all territory occupied by Russia since 2014, including Crimea and four Ukrainian regions illegally annexed in 2022. Russia has invested heavily in southern and eastern Ukraine, where it has received support from pro-Russian separatists for over a decade. With Russia’s leadership determined to win in Ukraine, voluntary troop withdrawal seems unlikely. Analysts stress the importance of an honest conversation between allies and Ukraine to define what victory means, along with potential concessions and compromises necessary for peace.
While Ukraine’s leadership currently shows little appetite for discussing an end to the war that does not involve outright victory, military expert Oleksandr Musiyenko emphasizes the need for honesty and unity in conversations with Western partners. Musiyenko acknowledges that liberating all occupied territory and joining NATO and the EU may be an ideal scenario for Ukraine, but exploring different possibilities is crucial. The impact of the U.S. aid package and future support after the upcoming presidential election will be significant in determining Ukraine’s next steps.
Musiyenko suggests that if Russian forces can be weakened and pushed back in the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, talks and a possible cease-fire backed by allies may become viable. In such a scenario, there could be a temporary balance of powers, allowing Ukraine to maintain independence and sovereignty while waiting for a more permanent solution. While Ukraine will not recognize occupied territories as belonging to Russia, a cease-fire could provide a temporary respite while maintaining Western support and communication with partners.
Ultimately, the conversation around Ukraine’s future involves identifying realistic goals, assessing the impact of aid packages and support, and considering potential concessions and compromises in settlement discussions with Russia. While a clear victory against Russia in the near term may be unrealistic, a balance of powers and a prolonged cease-fire could provide a roadmap for Ukraine’s future. By engaging in open and honest discussions with allies and partners, Ukraine can navigate the complexities of its current situation and work towards a sustainable peace settlement that safeguards its independence and territorial integrity.
