The 2024 US presidential election is shaping up to be historic, with Vice President and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris taking the lead in national polls after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race on July 21st. With Americans heading to the polls on November 5th, Harris faces off against Republican candidate Donald Trump. However, the outcome is far from certain, as the unique American electoral system and the potential for fatigue in the campaign could sway the results. The upcoming televised debate between Harris and Trump on September 10th will be crucial, and the suspense may continue until election day.
While national polls show Harris ahead, the real battleground lies in the swing states that can determine the outcome of the election. These states, where the balance of power can shift between parties, are key to securing victory. Despite Trump’s initial dominance, Harris has now caught up with or even surpassed him in several swing states. Her lead in states like Michigan and Wisconsin, which Trump won in 2016, is stable, while she is closely competing with him in states like Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania.
Demographically, Harris has strong support among young voters, women, and Black and Hispanic voters in these swing states, according to polls conducted by the New York Times/Sienna College. Surprisingly, she also performs better than Biden across all demographics, including among male voters and older adults. This suggests that Trump’s unpopularity has had an impact, as Harris even manages to win back some Democratic voters who had previously drifted away from the party.
The upcoming debate between Harris and Trump on ABC will be a pivotal moment in the campaign, with both candidates vying for the support of undecided voters. While national polls give Harris an edge, the dynamics in the swing states will ultimately determine the outcome of the election. The focus on local power dynamics in these key states will be crucial in predicting the final result on November 5th. With the race tightening in several swing states, the final weeks of the campaign will be crucial for both Harris and Trump.
In the lead-up to the election, Harris has managed to build momentum and close the gap with Trump in key swing states. Her ability to appeal to a wide range of demographics, including those who may have previously supported Trump or were disenchanted with the Democratic party, has been a key factor in her success. As the campaign enters its final phase, the outcome remains uncertain, with both candidates fighting for every vote in a closely contested race. The American people will ultimately decide the future of their country on election day, with the stakes higher than ever.
