The results of the legislative elections in France on June 30th and July 7th reveal a highly fragmented political landscape, despite the formation of three blocs: the left, the center, and the far right. This fragmentation places French politics in line with the dynamics at play in Europe, both nationally and within the European Union. However, the degree of fragmentation is unprecedented for the Fifth Republic, and French political parties are ill-prepared due to a lack of a culture of compromise and the brutalization of French political life.
The main consequence of this situation is clear: a lack of stable majority. France will be difficult to govern beyond day-to-day affairs and urgent matters. This situation also raises the possibility of a new dissolution in a year, increasing the uncertainty of the electoral calendar. In this scenario, each party may seek to place the blame for political deadlock on others, rather than making the necessary compromises to form cross-party majorities.
These elections also mark the parliamentaryization of French political life, with high voter turnout and the unpopularity of the President. Paradoxically, the Parliament may not emerge stronger if the fragmentation and polarization of the political landscape lead to indecision. The path towards a grand coalition seems to have been ruled out from the start, with several parties rejecting it immediately after the election results. Additionally, any minority government would risk facing a vote of no confidence and would struggle to implement its agenda, ultimately strengthening the far-right.
The current fragmentation calls for the formation of project majorities whose contours could vary depending on the issues at hand. The search for variable majorities could justify the formation of a technocratic government, which would reduce the risk of disappointment from either side and allow for a necessary political reconfiguration. However, this solution also has drawbacks, as this government itself could face a vote of no confidence if deemed illegitimate by a majority of deputies, especially if it is perceived as a government of the President.
In conclusion, the political landscape in France is characterized by unprecedented fragmentation, leading to a lack of stable majority and a potential political crisis. The formation of project majorities and a potential technocratic government may provide a way out of this deadlock, allowing for a necessary political recomposition. However, challenges remain in ensuring the legitimacy and effectiveness of any government formed in this context. The coming months will be crucial in determining the future direction of French politics and governance.
