Tropical Storm Rafael is expected to become a hurricane near the Cayman Islands before reaching Cuba. The storm, located southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica, is forecasted to strengthen as it moves northwest towards the Cayman Islands and then western Cuba. After passing over Cuba, Rafael is expected to turn northwest into the Gulf of Mexico, where it may encounter conditions that limit further development, according to forecasters.
The potential hurricane could worsen an ongoing energy crisis in Cuba, which is still recovering from the impacts of Hurricane Oscar. Parts of the island have experienced power outages due to infrastructure issues and fuel shortages. A hurricane warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, including Havana. Additionally, a tropical storm warning is in place for Jamaica, central Cuba, and a large portion of the Florida Keys.
Rafael is currently in an environment conducive for strengthening, with heavy rainfall expected in the western Caribbean region. The storm is forecasted to bring 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with locally higher amounts in Jamaica and parts of Cuba. Heavy rainfall and the potential for flooding are also projected for Florida and the southeastern United States later in the week, along with the possibility of tornadoes over the Keys and southwesternmost Florida mainland.
Preparations for the storm are underway in the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba. Schools and government offices have been closed in the Cayman Islands, and evacuation orders have been issued for parts of eastern Cuba. Officials are urging residents to remain vigilant and take necessary precautions as the storm approaches. Rafael is the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, with the potential to become the 11th hurricane of the year.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted an above-average hurricane season for 2024, with 17 to 25 named storms expected. This forecast includes the possibility of as many as 13 hurricanes and four major hurricanes. The normal Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. While the hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, storms are less likely to occur in the final month due to cooler weather conditions.
