Luc Rouban, a research director at the National Center for Scientific Research, focuses on the sociology of elites, the evolution of representative democracy, and political life. He published “The True Victory of the RN” in 2022. These elections have led to a sociological shift in the voting patterns for the National Rally (RN). The party is now leading in many places, including among the middle and upper classes, reflecting a deep social malaise that goes beyond xenophobia and racism.
The primary driver of RN voting is a sense of social decline with multiple factors, such as the feeling that a degree no longer guarantees social mobility as before, a loss of value in the labor market, and a perceived decline within the family unit. This skepticism towards the republican meritocratic model is fueled by deteriorating work conditions and mobility prospects. The second factor is a demand for authority, not in an authoritarian sense, but for a return to effective state institutions in areas like justice, security, healthcare, and transportation. There is a lack of trust in the government’s ability to improve daily life.
The sociology of RN voting is no longer based on class or socio-professional categories but on the individual’s subjective perception of their status in society. Voters do not align with traditional statistical definitions but based on their own self-assessment and social dynamics. The RN vote is less about discontent or anger, as it is often portrayed, but about a negative assessment of one’s trajectory, feeling marginalized, unrecognized, or experiencing widespread precarity and uncertainty about the future.
The RN’s success in the recent elections represents a broader social trend rather than a specific demographic group. While there are significant variations in the factors influencing RN support, the general feeling of social decline and the desire for effective governance are common threads. This shift in voting patterns reflects a growing dissatisfaction with the current political and social landscape in France, causing individuals to seek alternative solutions and express their frustration through their vote. It is essential to understand these underlying motives to address the root causes of this societal discontent and work towards building a more inclusive and responsive political system.
