Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are currently tied with a 49% probability of winning the upcoming U.S. presidential election on the prediction market Polymarket, which has an $860 million prediction market. The recent debate between Harris and Trump touched on national issues such as the war in Gaza and abortion rights, although cryptocurrency was notably absent from the discussion. Despite this, bettors on Polymarket gave Harris a significant advantage, with 94% believing she won the debate, although official polls have not been released yet. In the 24 hours leading up to the debate, Harris’ odds on Polymarket rose from 46% to 49%, while Trump’s slipped from 52% to 49%.
During the debate, Bitcoin’s price experienced a slight fluctuation. In the hours leading up to the event, Bitcoin briefly climbed above $58,000, but as the debate progressed, it dipped to around $56,700, stabilizing at $56,797. Justin d’Anethan, head of APAC business development at crypto market maker Keyrock, observed that the crypto market did not react significantly to the debate and that Bitcoin behaved like a typical risk asset, moving in line with tech stocks and other equities. He noted that Bitcoin is awaiting a more concrete catalyst, such as a shift in Federal Reserve policy or a significant political development, to trigger a substantial price movement.
Tokens on PolitiFi linked to Trump and Harris saw immediate reactions during the debate. Trump-linked token Super Trump (STRUMP), with a market cap of $13.8 million, dropped 6.8%, while Kamala Horris (KAMA) declined 5.7%, according to data from CoinGecko. MAGA (TRUMP) also saw a slight decrease of 0.2%. Bloomberg recently announced its plans to integrate election odds data from Polymarket into its Terminal platform. Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market operating on the Polygon network, allows users to bet on a wide range of event outcomes using transparent on-chain data and smart contracts for trade execution and payouts. In August, Polymarket’s trading volume approached $450 million, with nearly $760 million bet on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election as of late August.
Last month, five United States Senators and three House representatives called for a ban on betting activities linked to the upcoming 2024 presidential election. The bipartisan group, including prominent figures such as Senators Jeff Merkley, Richard Blumenthal, Elizabeth Warren, and Representatives Jamie Raskin and John Sarbanes, expressed concerns over the possibility of billionaires using large wagers to influence election outcomes, potentially eroding public trust in the democratic process. Despite the absence of cryptocurrency discussions in the recent debate between Harris and Trump, interest in the sector’s regulation continues to grow. Trump has voiced support for the cryptocurrency sector, while Harris has engaged with the industry but has not taken a definitive stance on the matter. The outcome of the upcoming U.S. presidential election and potential regulatory developments could impact the cryptocurrency market in the future.
