Israel has pledged to retaliate against Iran for a large-scale aerial assault on Saturday, in which more than 300 drones and missiles were launched against military targets in Israel. President Joe Biden described the attack as “unprecedented.” While some analysts believe Israel will respond with direct strikes against Iran, the timing and extent of that retaliation remain uncertain. Israel is considering a delicate balance between direct strikes and covert escalation, as they do not want an overt conflict with Iran.
Biden has committed to Israel’s security against Iranian threats but has made it clear that the U.S. will not participate in offensive operations against Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been informed of this stance. Ahead of a war cabinet meeting, Israel’s centrist minister Benny Gantz vowed to “build a regional coalition and exact the price from Iran” at the appropriate time. Iran claimed the attack on Israel was in response to an Israeli strike on its embassy in Damascus earlier in the month, which resulted in the death of seven Iranian military personnel.
The conflict between Israel and Iran has deep roots, with Iran supporting groups like Hamas in Gaza as well as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Yemen’s Houthis, and the Syrian regime under President Bashar al-Assad. Iran’s actions are often seen as an extension of its self-defense, particularly in response to Israeli military aggressions. Strategists anticipate Israel making a move within a week, though they don’t expect attacks on Iranian oil facilities. A more extreme retaliation may be possible within the next year or 18 months, particularly targeting Iran’s nuclear capacity.
Despite the tensions, the U.S. is seeking de-escalation, though there is an expectation that the overall level of escalation is likely to rise due to the nuclear threat from Iran in the coming months. Iran may continue to try to disrupt the global economy in a way that prompts the U.S. to pressure Israel to de-escalate. Prior to the recent attack on Israel, Iran seized an Israeli-linked container ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has indicated that its attack on Israel is concluded for now, but warned of a more severe response if Israel makes another mistake. The U.S. has been advised to stay away from the conflict between Israel and Iran.
