Expedia is set to announce its fiscal first-quarter results on May 2, and expectations are high for the travel company. Despite macroeconomic headwinds, Expedia’s revenues and earnings are anticipated to surpass consensus estimates. The company has benefited from resilient travel demand, with its B2B segment outperforming the retail side in terms of growth. Expedia’s margins have also seen an increase thanks to this segment. However, growth rates are expected to decelerate in 2024, particularly in the early part of the year as the company laps the post-Omicron tailwinds. Additionally, CEO Peter Kern is stepping down, with Ariane Gorin set to take over.
Over the past three years, Expedia’s stock performance has been quite volatile, with little change in its stock price. Although the stock underperformed the S&P 500 in 2022, it saw significant returns in 2021 and 2023. The uncertain macroeconomic environment, characterized by high oil prices and elevated interest rates, raises questions about whether Expedia’s stock will see a strong jump or underperform over the next 12 months. Trefis’ forecast indicates a valuation of $146 per share, which is 8% higher than the current market price.
Trefis estimates Expedia’s Q1 2024 revenues to be around $2.8 billion, slightly ahead of the consensus estimate. In 2023, the company reported record revenue of $12.8 billion, with strong performance in various segments. Booked room nights increased, lodging revenue improved, and revenue from international travel bookings showed a significant gain. Additionally, Expedia’s revenue generated from advertising and media saw a substantial increase. For the full year of 2024, Trefis expects Expedia’s revenues to grow by 10% year-over-year to $14.1 billion.
Expedia’s Q1 2024 earnings per share is expected to be -$0.20, beating the consensus estimate. The company’s full-year diluted earnings per share showed a significant jump in 2023 compared to the previous year. Expedia’s strong free cash flow levels enabled it to complete its largest-ever level of share repurchases in 2023. In Q4, the company reported an adjusted profit increase and an expansion of its adjusted EBITDA margin. The stock price estimate, based on EPS and P/E multiple projections for fiscal 2024, is $146, an 8% increase from the current market price.
Investors can compare Expedia’s performance with its peers through Trefis’ Peers feature, which provides valuable insights into how the company stacks up in key metrics. Trefis also offers Market Beating Portfolios for those looking to invest in a collection of stocks that have consistently outperformed the S&P 500. Despite the uncertainties in the market, Expedia’s strong performance and growth potential indicate a positive outlook for the company.
