The opening of the XVIIth legislature at the National Assembly in Paris on July 18, 2024 raised concerns about a potential budgetary deadlock. Alexandre Guigue, a public law professor at the University of Savoie-Mont-Blanc, warned that there is a possibility that no budget would be passed before January 1, 2025. The current government and Bercy are responsible for preparing the budget, with the draft budget law (PLF) required to be submitted to the National Assembly by the first Tuesday of October. The political situation is escalating, and it is feared that the resigning government of Gabriel Attal may still be in power in September, with no viable coalition to support a new government. This presents a significant risk of a budgetary deadlock, unprecedented under the Fifth Republic.
If Parliament fails to reach an agreement on the budget, legal and constitutional mechanisms are in place to prevent a crisis. However, there is a gap in the system when it comes to dealing with a National Assembly that is resistant to granting budgetary authorization. While some legal experts argue that the Constitution and the Organic Law on Budget Laws (LOLF) cover all scenarios, others believe that a scenario similar to a government shutdown in the United States could theoretically occur in France. This would result in government employees going unpaid and the administration being immobilized, causing widespread disruption.
The law and the Constitution have provisions to address budgetary deadlock. According to Article 47 of the Constitution, lawmakers have seventy days to “decide” on the budget. If they fail to do so, the government can implement it through ordinances. The same applies with a fifty-day deadline for the social security budget law. However, there is ambiguity regarding what “decide” means – whether it requires a positive vote or simply a vote, even if it leads to the rejection of the budget. If a government rules by ordinances, it could face challenges before the Council of State, creating further complications in resolving the deadlock.
There are additional legal avenues available to compel or bypass the National Assembly in case of a budgetary impasse. If certain specific articles prove problematic, the government can resort to a blocked vote under Article 44, paragraph 3, where the Assembly would have to vote on the entire text in a single vote. However, there is no guarantee that the Assembly would approve the budget in its entirety. This could lead to further resistance and impede efforts to pass the budget. Given the implications of a budgetary deadlock, it is crucial for all parties involved to find a resolution and prevent any disruptions to government operations and services.
