The debate on the budget for 2025 began on October 16th at the National Assembly in Paris. Charles de Courson, a centrist deputy from Marne and general rapporteur for the budget, believes that the government’s proposed budget does not accurately reflect reality and has no chance of being approved in its current state. Despite the government’s acknowledgment of the “very serious” budget situation, de Courson believes that the presentation is not entirely accurate.
De Courson’s analysis of the 2025 budget reveals inconsistencies, particularly in the government’s growth assumptions. While the government predicts a 1.1% growth rate in 2025, de Courson argues that the austerity measures outlined in the Barnier plan could have a significant negative impact on the economy, leading to a more modest growth rate of 0.6% to 0.7%. This discrepancy could ultimately impact expected revenues, raising concerns for de Courson.
When it comes to the content of the budget, de Courson questions the government’s claims of a 60 billion euro effort, split between spending cuts and tax increases. He argues that the government has misclassified certain measures as spending cuts when they should be considered revenue increases, amounting to 10 billion euros. By reclassifying these measures, the balance between spending cuts and tax hikes shifts to 50/50, rather than the government’s stated 60/40 split. This discrepancy raises doubts about the accuracy of the budget projections.
De Courson also raises concerns about the level of taxes in the budget, suggesting that there may be an overemphasis on tax increases rather than spending cuts. He notes that Europe, including France, has some of the highest tax burdens in the world, yet many countries are able to balance their budgets. De Courson believes that the focus should be on reducing spending rather than increasing taxes, as the current budget proposal still allows for significant government spending without true austerity measures in place.
In conclusion, de Courson expresses his belief that the budget for 2025 does not accurately reflect the economic reality and relies too heavily on tax increases rather than spending cuts. He emphasizes the need for true austerity measures to address the serious budget situation, highlighting the importance of reducing government spending to achieve a more balanced and sustainable fiscal policy. De Courson’s analysis calls into question the government’s budget projections and raises concerns about the effectiveness of the proposed measures to address France’s economic challenges.
