The center-right majority is faced with the challenge of choosing a successor to Giovanni Toti in Liguria, following his resignation. There is reluctance among parties to put forward a candidate due to fears of facing consequences at the upcoming regional elections, especially with the looming possibility of an election day in the fall that includes Emilia-Romagna and Umbria. The decision of when to hold the elections is in the hands of Toti’s lawyer, raising concerns about a potential “0-3” outcome for the center-right. The elections, yet to be scheduled, will coincide with budget discussions in Rome, adding to the complexity of the situation.
Giorgia Meloni, who is involved in negotiations for the European Commission appointment, must navigate tensions within the majority coalition, from discussions about differentiated autonomy to Rai appointments. In Liguria, the center-right is considering various options for a candidate, including Edoardo Rixi who Salvini has shown interest in, but who may not run. Fratelli d’Italia is exploring the idea of a civico candidate from outside the party sphere, similar to the approach taken in Emilia-Romagna. FDI and other parties reached an agreement to support the candidacy of Elena Ugolini, connected to Communion and Liberation.
The center-right’s pessimism about the potential election day is fueled by past electoral results, particularly from the European elections. In Liguria, the center-right received 44% of the vote, with FDI leading with over 26% and the League below 9%, compared to over 51% for the disunited center-left. Emilia-Romagna saw the majority government barely surpassing 40%, while in Umbria, the League’s Donatella Tesei faces a challenge after a poor showing in June, ultimately relying on FDI to maintain a slim lead over the center-left.
A triple defeat would be difficult for the coalition to manage, with concerns already arising about how to handle the results in the three regions. Looking ahead to the 2025 regional elections, there is pessimism in Tuscany following the European elections, with the premier’s party facing discontent from the beach industry. The fate of Luca Zaia in Veneto remains uncertain, with potential for him to run for mayor of Venice. FDI is pushing for their candidate for governor, setting the stage for potential tensions between Meloni and Salvini over candidate selection.
Overall, the center-right is navigating a complex political landscape, balancing internal tensions, potential electoral challenges, and the need to secure strong candidates for upcoming elections. The uncertainty surrounding the political future of key figures like Luca Zaia and the negotiations for key positions within the coalition add to the challenges facing the majority. As regional elections approach, strategic decisions will be crucial in maintaining cohesion and competitiveness within the center-right coalition.
