Aviation experts have suggested that Russian air defense fire may have been responsible for the recent Azerbaijani plane crash that resulted in the death of 38 individuals and injuries to all 29 survivors. The Azerbaijan Airlines’ Embraer 190 was en route from Baku to Grozny when it was diverted for unknown reasons and eventually crashed while attempting to land in Aktau, Kazakhstan. Cellphone footage showed the aircraft making a steep descent before crashing and exploding in a fireball about 2 miles from Aktau.
Azerbaijan mourned the crash victims by lowering national flags to half-staff and observing a nationwide moment of silence. President Ilham Aliyev mentioned at a news conference that weather conditions forced the plane to change course, leading to the crash upon landing in Aktau. While initial reports from Russia’s civil aviation authority indicated a diversion due to a bird strike, some experts believe the plane may have been hit by a surface-to-air missile from Russian defenses, possibly in response to a previous Ukrainian drone attack on Grozny.
Azerbaijani lawmaker Rasim Musabekov accused Moscow of attacking the plane and called for official apologies, criminal charges, and compensations for the victims. Reports from different sources suggest that the crashed plane’s tail section showed signs of damage consistent with a missile attack. Osprey Flight Solutions, a UK-based aviation security firm, warned that the plane could have been shot down by a Russian military air-defense system. Osprey’s CEO expressed regret over the lives lost in a preventable incident despite prior alerts about drone attacks and air defense systems in Russia during the war.
Independent Russian military expert Yan Matveyev speculated that the damaged tail section of the plane resembled shrapnel from a surface-to-air missile, possibly from the Pantsyr-S1 air defense system. Questions arose about why the pilots chose to fly east across the Caspian Sea instead of attempting to land at a closer airport in Russia after being hit. Various sources, including a government-connected Azerbaijan news website, suggested the plane was targeted by a Russian air defense system while approaching Grozny, criticizing the failure to close the airport during a drone raid in the region.
Despite the claims of air defense fire, Kremlin’s spokesperson urged against making hypotheses before the investigation is complete, while Kazakhstan’s parliamentary speaker dismissed the allegations as unfounded. The plane was carrying passengers from several nationalities, including Azerbaijani, Russian, Kazakh, and Kyrgyzstan nationals. Kazakh officials revealed the composition of the passengers aboard the crashed plane and mentioned that nine Russian survivors were flown to Moscow for medical treatment by Russia’s Emergencies Ministry. The investigation into the crash continues, with many questions remaining unanswered regarding the possible role of Russian air defenses in the tragic incident.
