The European elections are often surprising, and on June 9th, whether voter turnout increases or decreases, it will be a surprise. The trend of decreasing voter abstention has been evident since the peak in 2009 (59.37%) to lower rates in 2014 (57.57%) and 2019 (49.88%). If abstention continues to decrease, it will confirm the unique destiny of this particular election. European elections in France are the only ones held using a proportional representation system and have seen an increase in voter turnout in recent years, unlike other elections which have been neglected. Despite this, the presidential election still attracts three-quarters of citizens.
In 2021, the regional and departmental elections were boycotted by seven out of ten French citizens, while the municipal elections, which were previously popular, saw a significant increase in abstention from 37.9% in the second round in 2014 to 58.4% in 2020 – largely due to the Covid-19 crisis. Legislative elections no longer attract even half of the eligible voters. According to political science professor Pierre Bréchon, people consider the presidential election as the fundamental choice, leading to lower interest in subsequent elections. The fourth wave of the Ipsos electoral survey, in partnership with various institutions, indicates a predicted participation rate of 45%, with an increasing trend since November 2023.
Various political parties, from La France insoumise to the Rassemblement national, are hoping for high voter turnout. Jean-Luc Mélenchon of La France insoumise warned in a meeting on March 16 that abstention would essentially be a vote for Macron and Le Pen, urging voters to consider the consequences of not participating in the election. On the other end of the spectrum, RN MEP Philippe Olivier emphasized the importance of voter turnout, stating that high voter participation can lead to success for the party. French President Emmanuel Macron expressed concern over abstention in general, highlighting the importance of young people voting and referencing the Brexit referendum as an example of the potential consequences of not participating in the democratic process.
The increase in participation is seen as a positive trend, with the director general of Ipsos predicting a further increase in voter turnout. Various political leaders and parties are making efforts to encourage citizens to vote, emphasizing the importance of civic engagement and the potential impact of abstention on election outcomes. The particularity of the European elections, as the only proportional representation election in France, makes it an important opportunity for citizens to participate in shaping the political landscape. Despite the challenges posed by increasing voter apathy, leaders are hopeful that the upcoming election will see a significant turnout and encourage democratic engagement among the population.
