Raphaël Glucksmann arrives for a campaign meeting in Villeurbanne (Rhône) on May 1, 2024. On April 12, Emmanuel Macron dines with writer François Sureau after a ceremony at the Elysée Palace. They engage in small talk, with Macron seemingly unconcerned about the upcoming European elections, believing that the gap with Jordan Bardella of the National Rally will decrease. However, when Sureau mentions the strong campaign of Raphaël Glucksmann, Macron becomes visibly uneasy. Despite this, Macron instructs his team to ignore Glucksmann, feeling confident that the candidate lacks experience as a manager.
As the European elections draw closer, Raphaël Glucksmann gains momentum in the polls, closing in on Valérie Hayer, Macron’s candidate. Socialists begin to dream of a scenario where Glucksmann surpasses Hayer and challenges Bardella. Macron’s strategy of creating a progressive versus nationalist narrative is disrupted by this moderate leftist candidate. There is concern within Macron’s camp that voters are seeking a “pleasure vote,” reminiscent of the enthusiasm generated by Yannick Jadot in 2019. Despite this, Macron’s campaign team downplays Glucksmann’s potential, predicting he will only achieve 13% of the vote.
A sense of panic emerges among Macron’s supporters as they witness former Macron voters now backing Glucksmann. Some blame the shift on Macron’s right-leaning rhetoric, which has disappointed center-left voters. Caroline Janvier, a Renaissance MP, expresses concern about losing support due to Glucksmann’s appeal. The situation on the ground is getting tense, with cadres and activists within Macron’s camp fearing the consequences of this unexpected surge in support for a left-leaning candidate.
The dynamic of the campaign becomes increasingly divisive as Glucksmann continues to challenge Macron’s candidate. Macron’s team struggles to come up with a cohesive response to Glucksmann’s rise, especially as former Macron supporters defect to the moderate leftist candidate. The possibility of a significant upset in the European elections becomes a serious concern for Macron and his team, as they realize they may have underestimated Glucksmann’s appeal and the changing attitudes of the electorate. The outcome of the elections hangs in the balance, as the battle for votes intensifies between Macron’s camp and the unexpected challenger, Raphaël Glucksmann.
