With just six weeks left until the European elections, the Rassemblement National (RN) remains firmly in the lead, but there are shifting dynamics behind it. A second match is shaping up between the Renaissance list and the list of the Socialist Party (PS) and Place publique, in which undecided or demobilized voters could change the balance of power on Sunday, June 9. This is the finding of the fourth wave of the electoral survey conducted by Ipsos, in partnership with the Center for Political Research at Sciences Po (Cevipof), the Montaigne Institute, the Jean Jaurès Foundation, and Le Monde.
According to the survey conducted from April 19 to 24 using quota sampling on a large sample of 10,651 people representative of the French population registered on electoral lists, aged 18 and over, the RN list, led by Jordan Bardella, has increased by 1 percentage point compared to the previous wave in March, to reach 32% of voting intentions (with a margin of error of 1.3 points). The list of the presidential majority (Renaissance, MoDem, Horizons, and UDI) led by Valérie Hayer, on the other hand, has dropped by one point to 17% (margin of error: 1.1 points), a level where it is increasingly challenged by the PS-Place publique list of Raphaël Glucksmann.
Glucksmann’s list has gained 2.5 percentage points and now stands at 14% of voting intentions (margin of error: 1 point), driven in particular by transfers of votes from Renaissance, ecologists, La France Insoumise (LFI), and the French Communist Party (PCF). Behind this top three, the LFI list led by Manon Aubry remains stable at 7% of voting intentions, followed by the ecologists’ list led by Marie Toussaint at 6.5%, a decrease of two points compared to March. The Les Républicains list of François-Xavier Bellamy remains almost stable at 6.5%, followed by the Reconquête! party list of Marion Maréchal at 5.5%. The Communist Party list led by Léon Deffontaines is at 2.5%, down 1 point from March, possibly due to the increasing number of lists on the far left.
On the far left, the New Anticapitalist Party (NPA) list, or at least part of the NPA resulting from the last split in December 2022, led by Selma Labib, enters the survey at 1%. In parallel, the Lutte ouvrière list led by Nathalie Arthaud is credited with 0.5% of voting intentions. Overall, the dynamics of the upcoming European elections seem uncertain with the RN maintaining its lead, but with the potential for shifts in the balance of power among the other major political parties and candidates. The upcoming weeks leading up to June 9 will be crucial in determining the final outcome of the elections.
