If the National Rally (RN) obtains the largest number of deputies in the National Assembly after the legislative elections on July 7, it would be an unprecedented event in French politics. The 5th Republic’s institutions were designed for moderate political forces, so the rise of an extreme right party like the RN could lead to significant institutional uncertainties. The RN, being historically and structurally anti-liberal, does not adhere to certain constitutional principles at the core of the French Republic, such as equality and national solidarity for disadvantaged individuals. This situation would mark a new and uncertain chapter in French politics.
Under the 5th Republic, no extreme right party has ever topped the legislative elections. The potential consequences of such a victory are unpredictable and depend on the strategies of other political actors. The question arises whether the RN’s parliamentary ascent poses a short-term threat to democratic functioning. In other European countries where the extreme right has risen to power, there have been attempts to undermine the rule of law by attacking judicial independence, minority rights, and freedom of the press. The RN’s agenda includes privatizing the public broadcasting service at a time when media outlets are being purchased by wealthy individuals, potentially compromising their independence.
The Council of State faces regular attacks from the extreme right, which sees it as a barrier to their radical proposals. While the Council may not be immediately threatened, it will likely face a government majority implementing potentially unconstitutional policies. In February 2025, the President of France must appoint a new President of the Council of State to succeed Laurent Fabius for a nine-year term. The President of the National Assembly and the President of the Senate will each appoint a new member for the same period. For the RN to have a say, they would need to gain the presidency of the National Assembly, assuming the President of the Senate and the current President of France, Emmanuel Macron, remain in office.
The rise of the RN to power through the legislative route would trigger a significant shift in French politics, with potential consequences for democratic norms and institutions. The party’s disregard for certain fundamental principles of the Republic raises concerns about its approach to governance, including its views on equality and solidarity. While the Council of State may face challenges from the incoming government, its existence is not immediately threatened. The upcoming appointments to the Council will play a crucial role in shaping its composition and priorities for the coming years, potentially reflecting the changing political landscape in France.
The outcome of the legislative elections will be pivotal in shaping the future direction of French politics, as the potential victory of the RN would bring about unprecedented challenges. With the rise of nationalist movements in other European countries, there is a growing concern about the erosion of democratic values and the rule of law. The media landscape in France may also face transformations under the RN’s privatization agenda, raising questions about press freedom and independence. As the political landscape evolves, the role of institutions like the Council of State will be crucial in upholding democratic principles and ensuring the rule of law.
