Standard Chartered’s top crypto analyst, Geoffrey Kendrick, believes that Bitcoin is set for more price gains later this year, even after a recent retreat in prices. Kendrick predicts that Bitcoin could rise to $150,000 per coin, while Ether could hit $8,000 by the end of 2024. He attributes this positive outlook to the fact that he believes the bad news has already been priced into BTC and ETH, and that positive structural drivers will take over as negative drivers fade. Additionally, the removal of leveraged long positions from BTC futures following Iran’s attack on Israel suggests that market positioning is now much cleaner, paving the way for potential price increases.
Bitcoin temporarily dropped below $60,000 last week as traders responded to news of an escalating military conflict between Iran and Israel. Despite the belief among some that Bitcoin functions as a hedge against economic and geopolitical instability, it has largely mirrored traditional risk assets, like equities, in recent years due to increased institutional investment. Kendrick notes that Bitcoin has the ability to react quickly to bad news, given that the crypto market operates 24/7 while conventional markets only trade on weekdays. Despite recent losses following the Iran-Israel conflict, Kendrick remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential for further growth in the coming months, potentially surpassing its previous record high of $73,797.68.
Kendrick points to several factors that could support Bitcoin’s price towards the end of 2024, including the supply shock from Bitcoin’s halving, which limits the supply of new Bitcoin issuance, and the introduction of new Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. These ETFs are attracting billions of dollars worth of the cryptocurrency from exchanges, which could help drive prices higher. However, Bitcoin faces other challenges, such as a stalling of new Bitcoin ETF inflows in the U.S., uncertainties surrounding the approval of an ether spot ETF, a Securities and Exchange Commission lawsuit against decentralized exchange Uniswap, higher U.S. Treasury yields, and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Despite these obstacles, Kendrick remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects.
Kendrick notes that while BTC ETF inflows in the U.S. have stalled, the recent halving means that only half as much inflow is now needed to cover net new supply. He also highlights improving global ETF conditions in places like the UK and Hong Kong, and the fact that large long liquidations over the past few weeks have resulted in cleaner market positioning. With tensions in the Middle East easing, Kendrick believes it is a good time to re-engage in medium-term long positions in Bitcoin. This optimistic outlook is based on the belief that positive structural drivers will outweigh negative factors, leading to further price gains for Bitcoin and Ether in the future.
In conclusion, Standard Chartered’s top crypto analyst remains bullish on Bitcoin and Ether, predicting significant price gains for both cryptocurrencies in the coming years. Despite recent volatility and challenges, Kendrick believes that positive structural drivers, such as supply shocks and the emergence of new ETFs, will support price growth. While Bitcoin faces several obstacles, including regulatory uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, Kendrick sees opportunities for long-term investment in the crypto market. Overall, Kendrick’s forecast suggests that Bitcoin and Ether have the potential to reach new record highs in the near future, driven by a combination of market forces and investor sentiment.
