The character of the third man is always interesting in an electoral campaign. They can rise high in the polls and then collapse (like Jean-Pierre Chevènement in the 2002 presidential campaign), start low and surprise everyone on election night (like Yannick Jadot in the 2019 European elections campaign), or persist in hopes of eventually winning the presidency (like François Bayrou). The various scenarios surrounding Raphaël Glucksmann’s name create suspense, give life to hypotheses, and develop parallel stories. As one of the founders of Place publique, supported by the Socialist Party (PS), Glucksmann has emerged as the third man in the European elections campaign. His potential success remains uncertain, but it is clear that something is happening on the left as the election draws closer.
Often portrayed as a “bobo germarnopratin,” Glucksmann, the son of André Glucksmann, who became a Member of the European Parliament in 2019, is polling at 13% in the Ipsos-Le Parisien-France Inter survey published on April 14. Apart from Jordan Bardella (National Rally), who is leading with 32%, Glucksmann is one of the few candidates gaining momentum. This allows him to close the gap with Renaissance candidate Valérie Hayer (16%) and widen the distance with the France Insoumise (LFI) list, led by Manon Aubry (7%). The plan to loosen the grip between Emmanuel Macron and Jean-Luc Mélenchon seemed impossible a year ago but now appears more credible as both men’s appeal has diminished. Macron’s shift to the right and Mélenchon’s inconsistencies have pushed some voters back to the left.
Mélenchon’s credibility suffered due to his handling of the Quatennens affair in late 2022 (where LFI MP was accused of domestic violence and convicted), his extreme stance on pension reforms, refusal to label Hamas as a terrorist organization, and peace statements amid the Ukraine-Russia tension. The split of the New Ecological and Social Popular Union has turned Mélenchon into a target for many of his former partners, leading the European elections to resemble a pre-presidential showdown. Raphaël Glucksmann’s rising popularity and positioning between Macron and Mélenchon could potentially shake up the landscape of the left in French politics. As the election date approaches, the role of the third man becomes crucial and unpredictable, leaving room for unexpected outcomes and shifts in power dynamics.
