Former President Trump and Vice President Harris are currently in a tight race ahead of their first – and potentially only – debate in Philadelphia, according to a new survey of voters. Harris leads Trump 49% to 48% among registered voters, showing a race that has tightened since August when Harris held a 3-point lead against Trump. Among those who say they definitely plan to vote, the survey found Harris edging Trump by 3 points, 51% to 48%. However, Trump leads Harris among Independent voters 49% to 46%, which is a 14-point shift from August when Harris commanded an 11-point lead in a field that had multiple candidates.
Republican pollster Whit Ayers sees the swing in independent support as a “warning sign” for Harris’ campaign, stating that she had a “honeymoon period” of initial excitement among Democrats after President Biden exited the race. The latest results of the New York Times/Siena poll showed the two candidates locked in a dead heat, with Trump holding a slight lead at 48% of likely voters compared to 47% for Vice President Harris. The NPR/PBS News/Marist National Poll also showed Trump with a lead among Latino voters at 51% compared to 47% for Harris.
On the issues, the survey found that a majority of Americans consider Trump better equipped to handle the immigration crisis, the economy, and the Middle East. Trump led Harris on these issues by margins ranging from 4 to 7 percentage points. However, Harris was perceived as the candidate better equipped to handle the abortion issue, with 56% of respondents favoring her compared to 42% for Trump. Republican strategist Kevin Madden noted that Harris experienced an initial surge of support and enthusiasm as a new candidate, but recent polling indicates that this burst of excitement has subsided, leading to a close and bitterly divided contest.
Despite the initial surge of support for Harris, Madden believes that the race has snapped back to its original state, which is a very close contest among a bitterly divided electorate. He predicts that the election will come down to a few hundred thousand voters in a handful of states, emphasizing that it will be a very close race. Trump’s lead among Independent voters could be a significant factor in determining the outcome of the election, as well as his perceived strength on issues such as immigration, the economy, and the Middle East. With the race heating up as the debate approaches, both candidates will have to make compelling arguments to win over undecided voters.
