Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Russian border territory caught many officials in Kyiv off guard, with only a handful of people aware of the operation beforehand. This silence and strategic ambiguity were key to Ukraine’s initial success, with the country now controlling around 1,000 square kilometers of the Kursk region. The operation has exposed weaknesses in Russia’s military command and humiliated its leadership, with several thousand Ukrainian troops operating inside Russia and hundreds of Russian prisoners of war captured.
President Zelenskyy has stated that the incursion was designed to pressure Russia and push the war into Russian territory. The senior Ukrainian official emphasized the importance of this operation, comparing it to the liberation of Kherson in late 2022. The official indicated that the operation was aimed at changing the dynamics of the war and increasing Ukraine’s negotiating power in future peace initiatives. There are no immediate plans to withdraw, with the official noting that the war continues but this development puts Ukraine in a better strategic position.
Russia’s slow and sluggish response to the incursion has surprised many, with President Putin promising a “worthy response.” The evacuation of thousands of civilians in neighboring regions due to “enemy activity” and the repositioning of Russian troops underscores the seriousness of the situation. The official interviewed by CNBC stressed that Ukraine’s goal is not to annex Russian territory but to use its current position as leverage to achieve a just peace faster.
Geopolitical analysts suggest that the Kursk operation could be a breakthrough in the war, but sustaining it will be a challenge for Ukraine. More Ukrainian troops may be sent into Kursk, but this could leave crucial frontline positions weakened and unprotected. The response from Russia will be crucial in determining the next steps, with concerns that the Kremlin’s reaction could be furious given the humiliation it has faced. The official stated that Ukraine’s priority is protecting its troops and using its position to bring about a peaceful resolution.
The incursion in Kursk threatens critical Russian assets and has achieved a number of strategic goals, including humiliating President Putin and showing that war must be conducted on Russian territory to win. The operation has reversed the terms of confrontation and demonstrated that the West’s concerns about escalating the conflict were misplaced. Ukraine’s ability to sustain the incursion and defend against counter-attacks will be challenging, but it has effectively shifted the narrative of the war and put Russia on the defensive. The situation remains fluid, with the potential for further escalation or diplomatic initiatives in the future.
