The way in which France handles the violence in New Caledonia will not only affect its prestige in the archipelago, but also in the entire Pacific and Indo-Pacific region. The clashes risk leading to a tragic return to the situation before the peace agreements, with the bloodshed that was experienced in the 1980s. The wounds remain deep, and the success of these agreements has been attributed to the constant compromises made by the French state, loyalists, and independence supporters. Their trust in these agreements, seen as a potential path to self-determination, allowed the French state to organize three referendums between 2018 and 2021.
The first two referendums were successful, with 56.7% and 53.3% respectively voting against independence. However, during the third vote in 2021, the French state failed by maintaining the voting date despite requests for postponement from the indigenous population. At that time, Covid-19 had caused hundreds of deaths among the Kanak people, with leaders explaining that lengthy funeral ceremonies were preventing campaigning and voting. Faced with the Kanak boycott, loyalists won 96.5% of the votes, a Pyrrhic victory. Since then, the division has only worsened, with loyalists insisting on the legality of the vote and the cementing of the archipelago’s place within France, while independence groups reject the third referendum and call for another one.
When Emmanuel Macron offered a “path of forgiveness” to overcome the past in July 2023, the independence groups did not attend. The French president then threatened unilateral action until local stakeholders reached an agreement. Informal discussions in December 2023 revealed deep disagreements, including on the electoral body. Kanak protests escalated into violent clashes on the day the French National Assembly was examining a constitutional revision project to unilaterally expand the electoral body due to a lack of agreement before June. The extent of destruction by young Kanak people signals the deep distress of this new generation, not only to France and loyalists targeted, but also to Kanak leaders and neighboring countries.
The situation in New Caledonia is causing concern not only for France, but also for the entire Pacific and Indo-Pacific region. The ongoing violence and political unrest threaten to undermine the hard-won peace agreements and stability in the region. The refusal of independence groups to engage in discussions and the escalating clashes highlight the urgent need for a resolution to avoid a return to the violent conflicts of the past. The deep divisions within New Caledonian society, reflected in the struggles between loyalists and independence supporters, are a significant challenge for future peace and stability in the region.
The French government’s actions and decisions regarding New Caledonia’s political situation have far-reaching implications beyond the archipelago. The involvement of Emmanuel Macron and the French state in attempting to mediate and find a solution to the conflict demonstrates the importance of maintaining stability and peace in the region. The deep-rooted historical and social issues in New Caledonia, including the legacy of colonialism and the desire for self-determination, continue to shape the current unrest and challenges facing the region. Efforts to bridge the gaps between different groups and find a peaceful resolution will be crucial in determining the future path of New Caledonia and its place within France and the wider Pacific community.
