In December 2022, China ended its zero-COVID program, which led to the lifting of travel restrictions, quarantines, and testing. Many Western experts anticipated an economic boom following this decision, with reports of rapid consumer spending and a resurgence in the country’s economy. However, by August 2023, data suggested that the projected recovery was not taking place, with slower-than-expected growth in various sectors and deflationary pressure on the economy.
The end of zero-COVID did not mark the end of COVID in China. Infections surged, overwhelming the healthcare system and affecting over a billion people within a few weeks. With China experiencing a much larger and more intense outbreak than other countries following the end of zero-COVID policies, experts warned of the potential risks of new variants emerging due to rolling waves of infections.
Estimating the true impact of the pandemic in China requires looking at the true toll on the population, which is challenging given the lack of reliable data from the government. Different approaches have been used to estimate the true COVID mortality in China, including excess mortality calculations, estimates based on comparable countries, and modeling based on public data sources. These estimates suggest that the number of deaths in China may be much higher than officially reported.
Factors such as age, low vaccination rates, vaccine efficacy, and healthcare facilities in China contribute to a more severe impact of COVID in the country compared to other comparables. Estimates based on excess mortality, comparable countries, and modeling all suggest that the number of deaths in China is likely higher than officially reported, with potentially millions of excess deaths above the normal trend.
The suppression of data and active suppression of key information by the Chinese government make it challenging to fully understand the impact of COVID in China. The lack of transparency and accurate reporting may have contributed to the country’s current economic slowdown, with millions potentially affected by the virus and its consequences. The true extent of the damage caused by COVID in China may never be fully known due to the government’s actions.
