The overall assessment of President Macron on Europe is not insignificant, as he emphasized in his speech at the Sorbonne on April 25, 2024. However, there has been little progress on one subject since his first “Sorbonne speech” in 2017, especially given the destabilization caused by Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. This subject is the defense of Europe. The Europeans have struggled to do more in this area, possibly due to long-standing underestimation of the Russian threat and overestimation of American security guarantees. Macron, in particular, has continued this trend, exemplified by his August 2019 meeting at Brégançon which showcased a surprising confidence in dialogue with the Kremlin, even after the invasion of Ukraine.
It has been argued that France’s illusions about Russia were shared by Germany and many others, including American foreign policy experts like Henry Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski. However, France did not have as urgent interests as Germany in the matter while being less detached from the reality of Russia than post-Cold War America. The UK did not fall into the same trap, realizing since 2011-2012 and even more so since the annexation of Crimea in 2014 that Vladimir Putin had chosen confrontation with the West. The collective blindness was not limited to Macron, as much of the French political class seemed to have misjudged the situation in 2017, with Macron being the least “pro-Russia” candidate in the presidential election.
Macron’s predecessor, Hollande, had shown more foresight than many others, but he too believed in dialogue with Russia by co-founding the Normandy negotiations with Merkel to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. The illusion around Russia was not solely Macron’s, but rather a shared misconception within the French political establishment. This has hindered France’s ability to play a leadership role in Europe and convince partners of the need for greater strategic autonomy. The belief in the value of the European project still persists for Macron, provided that it reaches a new level.
The shadow over Macron’s European policy lies in the lack of progress on defense issues, particularly in the face of Russian aggression. The need for greater strategic autonomy in Europe has become increasingly urgent, as the transatlantic security guarantee may not be as reliable as once thought. Macron’s affinity for dialogue with the Kremlin, even after the invasion of Ukraine, has raised concerns about France’s ability to take a strong stance on the European stage. It is essential for France to reassess its approach to Russia and prioritize European defense and security cooperation to address the current challenges facing the continent.
In conclusion, Macron’s track record on Europe has been notable, but his handling of the defense issue has raised questions about his approach to Russian aggression and the need for greater European autonomy. The blind spot concerning Russia within the French political class has hindered France’s ability to lead on these issues, highlighting the importance of re-evaluating European defense strategies and relationships with key partners. Despite these challenges, Macron’s belief in the European project remains, contingent on its ability to adapt and evolve to meet the current geopolitical challenges facing the continent.
