The aftermath of the 2024 European Parliament elections has left many politicians across the bloc taking stock, as far-right parties made significant gains. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is faced with a more challenging landscape in the upcoming term. The pro-EU, liberal, green, and populist parties that dominated in 2019 have now given way to a more fragmented vote, with centrist and traditional parties suffering losses and seats going to left-wing and right-wing populist parties. This means von der Leyen will have to negotiate with a wide range of parties to secure her second term and pass legislation, a tough task that may require compromises and concessions.
Following the election results, von der Leyen declared that the pro-EU centre had held strong, but the liberal Renew party suffered significant losses, particularly in major EU member states like Germany, the Netherlands, and Spain. This upset was further highlighted by French President Emmanuel Macron’s liberal party, Renaissance, performing poorly compared to Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National. Macron’s decision to call a snap election in France has set the stage for a battle for political leadership in both France and Brussels, as top jobs within the European Union will be up for grabs, including von der Leyen’s presidency.
Despite the challenges ahead, von der Leyen remains a strong candidate for a second term as European Commission President. Her first term was marked by significant name recognition and public approval, factors that likely contributed to her party’s success in the recent elections. However, securing a nomination for a second term will not be easy, with a more diverse and fragmented political landscape requiring von der Leyen to navigate negotiations with a range of parties, including greens, leftists, and the far right. Finding a balance that satisfies all groups will be a complex task.
The confirmation process for von der Leyen’s first term was already challenging, requiring backroom deals and concessions with centrist and green party groupings. With the current political landscape more fractured, navigating the nomination process for a second term will likely require even greater negotiation skills and compromises. The need to satisfy various groups with conflicting interests, such as maintaining the European Green Deal while addressing migration policy concerns, adds an additional layer of complexity to von der Leyen’s path to confirmation.
The shifting dynamics in European politics, with top EU job nominations becoming more political and anticipated, reflect a broader trend towards greater importance placed on the outcomes of European Parliament elections. The increased significance of these elections signals to voters that leadership within the European Commission has a direct impact on policies and direction within the EU. This development is seen as a positive step for democracy within the European Union, as it highlights the importance of both personalities and policies in shaping the future of the EU. Overall, the more political nature of the nomination process for top EU jobs signifies a shift towards a more democratic and engaged European political landscape.
