Georgia is being warned by experts that it could potentially become the next Ukraine due to Russia’s past invasion and ongoing threats of aggression. The country’s precarious geographic position adds complexity to the situation, although it may not have a direct impact on European security. Moldova recently voted in favor of continuing its path toward EU membership, with the country’s president condemning Russian interference and accusing “criminal groups” of attempting to undermine the vote. The upcoming presidential election in Moldova, where the pro-EU leader will face a pro-Russian opposition leader, has raised concerns in Brussels about Russia’s “hybrid war” tactics destabilizing Moldova and derailing its EU aspirations. Similar concerns exist for Georgia, which is holding parliamentary elections soon and has also faced Russian interference.
Amanda Paul, Deputy Head of Europe in the World Programme and Senior Policy Analyst at the European Policy Centre, specializes in Turkey, Ukraine, and the South Caucasus. She discusses the potential political instability in Moldova and Georgia, emphasizing the risks of Russian interference and destabilization. The ongoing plenary session in Strasbourg, featuring important votes on the EU’s 2025 annual budget and debates such as the abortion law in Poland, showcases the current discussions and decisions within the EU. The show highlights the competitive European tax systems, with a small country topping the list as having the most attractive tax structure.
The close vote in Moldova’s recent referendum regarding EU membership signifies the country’s divided stance on aligning with the EU or Russia. President Maia Sandu’s condemnation of Russian interference reflects the challenges faced by former Soviet republics in pursuing their European aspirations amid external pressure. The upcoming second round of presidential elections in Moldova will be crucial in determining the country’s future path, with the potential for further destabilization due to Russian influence. Similarly, Georgia’s parliamentary elections hold significance in the context of Russian interference, highlighting the ongoing challenges faced by countries in the region.
The potential for Georgia to become the next Ukraine underscores the vulnerability of countries in the South Caucasus region to external aggression and interference. Moldova’s struggles with Russian interference and the division within the country regarding EU membership demonstrate the complexities of balancing internal aspirations with external pressures. The debates and votes taking place within the EU showcase the importance of decisions made at the European level in shaping the future of member states and aspiring countries. As discussions continue about taxation and other policy issues, the role of smaller countries in Europe’s competitiveness is highlighted.
Overall, the situation in Moldova and Georgia reflects the broader geopolitical challenges faced by countries in the region as they navigate between European aspirations and Russian influence. The potential for further destabilization and interference underscores the need for strong international cooperation and support for countries seeking to align with the EU. The ongoing debates and votes within the EU demonstrate the complexities of decision-making at the European level and the impact these decisions have on member states and aspiring countries. The focus on taxation as a competitive factor highlights the importance of economic policies in shaping the attractiveness of countries in the European market.
