The recent torrential rains and deadly floods in Kenya have been some of the most catastrophic in the country in recent years. The heavy rains have resulted in at least 169 deaths and 91 people missing according to government figures. One of the most tragic events was the death of at least 48 people in a flash flood caused by water blowing through a blocked river tunnel under a railway line in southwestern Kenya. Additionally, over 190,000 people have been displaced and roads and infrastructure have been damaged as a result of the devastating rains.
Kenya experiences two main rainfall periods, the “long rains” season from March to May, and the “short rains” season from October to December. The “long rains” season is characterized by heavy rains, often extending until June, and accounts for most of the country’s average annual rainfall. Last year’s “short rains” season saw severe storms in many parts of the country, with some regions receiving nearly three times their long-term average rainfall. The Kenya Meteorological Department had predicted above-average rainfall for this year’s “long rains” season, warning of flash floods, landslides, and other impacts.
The intensity of the rain this time can be attributed to a mix of factors, including naturally occurring climate systems like the Indian Ocean Dipole. The positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole, which creates warmer sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean, has been linked to heavy rainfall in areas like Kenya. Research indicates that the current floods in Kenya are more likely due to the positive Indian Ocean Dipole and human-caused climate change rather than the El Nino weather phenomenon, which has little influence on rainfall in East Africa during the “long rains” season. Warmer oceans from climate change lead to increased evaporation and more intense rainfall.
As a result of the changing climate patterns in Kenya, predicting the end of the “long rains” season has become increasingly challenging. The Kenya Meteorological Department expects the season to continue into June and warns of heavy downpours likely to occur in several regions, along with flooding in low-lying areas and landslides in steep slopes. The unpredictability of weather patterns in recent years has made it crucial for authorities and residents to be prepared for the impact of these catastrophic rains. The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage is supported by multiple private foundations, and they remain committed to providing accurate and timely information on such events.
In conclusion, the recent torrential rains and deadly floods in Kenya have highlighted the complex interplay of natural climate systems, human-caused climate change, and other factors in creating devastating weather events. As the country continues to grapple with the aftermath of these floods, it is essential for authorities to take proactive measures to mitigate the impact of future extreme weather events. The resilience of communities in the face of such disasters will be crucial in ensuring the safety and well-being of all citizens in Kenya.
