This weekend’s college football season anticipates big games, including No. 4 Ohio State playing against No. 3 Penn State. Football Analyst Geoff Schwartz is wagering the Under in this Big Ten match-up due to his doubts about the ability of both teams to score points. Ohio State’s offensive line is plagued with injuries, and despite their elite wide receiver and quarterback, they were unable to move the ball against Nebraska last weekend. Penn State’s defensive line is strong, with the entire defense ranking 11th in points per drive. They too have uncertainties at quarterback as Drew Allar could potentially be off with a knee injury, and their offense struggles to generate explosive plays. Schwartz’s bet for this match-up is UNDER 45 points scored by both teams.
In another anticipated game, Air Force plays against No. 21 Army. The Black Knights have the most points per drive in college football, and despite their preference for rushing over throwing, they are first in success rate in the red zone. Meanwhile, Air Force’s defense allows at least five touchdowns per game on the road, with the Falcons ranking 98th in points per drive. Despite the tendency for both these teams to limit the amount of possessions due to heavy running, Air Force is breaking that trend this season with their failing offense. Schwartz’s analysis is that Army will score a touchdown on half of 10 forecast possessions, leading to his wager of Army team total OVER 31.5 points.
The USC vs. Washington match sees both teams with similar performance trends. Both teams should be scoring more points than they currently are, they struggle to finish games well, and their performances on the road leave much to be desired. Washington shines when playing at home, where they are 4-0, and perform 25% better on third down at home versus on the road. They are also strong in rushing the passer. USC is no match for Washington’s home advantage, especially considering USC’s performance as a road favorite this season. Based on this, Schwartz’s pick for this game is Washington (+3) to lose by fewer than 3 points, or win outright.
The college football weekend is beyond these individual games, with implications for the College Football Playoff (CFP). Schwartz’s speculation includes Ohio State, Tulane, and Kansas State with the best bets and odds to miss the CFP. These predictions are subject to change as the landscapes of the games and players’ performances evolve and will be reevaluated as the weekend unfolds.
Geoff Schwartz, the analyst making these predictions, is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. His experience is built on his time as a player for eight seasons in the NFL across five different teams. He also played as a right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons, earning a second-team All-Pac-12 selection during his final year of play.
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