Iran has been identified as engaging in an influence campaign aimed at undermining the candidacy of former President Donald Trump in the upcoming election, according to officials from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), FBI, and Department of Homeland Security. This effort is seen as a retaliation for a similar campaign that U.S. intelligence agencies confirmed was authorized by Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during the 2020 election. The officials, who spoke anonymously, stated that Iran’s goal is to avoid escalating tensions with the United States, and they are opposing the candidate they believe would exacerbate those tensions.
Iran’s online activities have been focused on sowing chaos and societal divisions, including over the Gaza conflict. The officials did not directly implicate the Trump campaign in their statements but referenced their findings from the 2020 assessment. They also mentioned Iran’s backing of Gaza-related protests in the U.S., as detailed in a recent statement by Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines. Despite concerns about the scale of Iran’s activities and their direct engagement with U.S. individuals, specific details were not disclosed.
Unlike Iran, Russia is reportedly working to influence the election in Trump’s favor, as it did in previous election cycles. The U.S. officials highlighted Russia’s ongoing efforts to support Trump, citing President Vladimir Putin’s authorization of operations aimed at disparaging the Biden campaign and stoking societal divisions. The Kremlin’s preference for Trump is believed to be consistent with Putin’s views, with the involvement of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Supreme Leader in influencing operations.
China, while capable of conducting influence campaigns, is not currently believed to be targeting the presidential race due to concerns about damaging bilateral relations. However, there is a possibility that actors linked to China may focus on denigrating down-ballot candidates. U.S. intelligence agencies are closely monitoring political developments, particularly in light of recent events such as the failed assassination attempt on Trump and Biden’s decision to withdraw his candidacy. Russia and China are known to engage commercial firms to conceal their involvement in influence efforts, leveraging Americans to promote narratives that align with their interests.
Efforts to undermine the U.S. election involve a complex web of foreign actors and their domestic collaborators, posing challenges for intelligence agencies in identifying and countering these activities. The officials emphasized the importance of vigilance in detecting and confronting foreign interference, particularly as the election draws closer. While the focus is primarily on preventing external influence in the presidential race, attention is also given to potential interference in down-ballot races and the use of intermediaries such as marketing and PR firms to obfuscate foreign involvement. The ongoing efforts of foreign countries to manipulate American perceptions and narratives underscore the need for robust countermeasures to safeguard the integrity of the electoral process.
