Ukrainian firepower has been improving since the approval of a military aid package by U.S. lawmakers, but it has not been enough to stop the Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine. Despite receiving Western munitions that have helped to shrink Kyiv’s artillery disadvantage, Moscow’s forces are still making gains along the front line and are expected to continue doing so throughout the summer. The Ukrainian forces in the Donetsk region are on the defensive, resulting in heavy losses during troop rotations and bringing the Russian forces closer to crucial supply routes. Kyiv has adopted a bend-but-don’t-break strategy to buy time until more Western weapons and ammunition can reach the front lines.
New weapons and ammunition have been gradually reaching the front line following the approval of the aid package by President Joe Biden. While it will take time for Ukraine to fully replenish its depleted stocks, the artillery advantage of Russia has decreased from 7-to-1 to 5-to-1. More weapons, including F-16 fighter jets, are expected to arrive later in the year to help neutralize Russian airpower. Despite receiving some new supplies, Ukrainian units still require larger quantities to effectively hold off Russia’s advances, especially in terms of anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles.
Ukraine has employed an elastic defensive strategy to gain time until it is better equipped and supplied. By making difficult decisions to retreat to better-defended positions, Ukrainian troops are able to fight more effectively and preserve personnel. The strategy aims to give Ukraine advantages it has never had before by the end of the year. This approach differs from the past battle for the city of Bakhmut, where Ukrainian troops suffered heavy casualties in an unsuccessful attempt to hold territory. The current strategy is focused on ceding some territory to gain time and then striking back with enhanced capabilities.
Russia’s main offensive in the Donetsk region is centered around recently captured areas, and they are making small but steady gains. The fall of key areas could jeopardize nearby cities, disrupt supply routes, and bring Russia closer to its goal of seizing the entire region. Russian tactics have been effective in exhausting Ukrainian forces by forcing them to expend more shells, attacking more frequently at night, and using soldiers in Ukrainian-style helmets to confuse drone operators. Signal jamming along the front line has reduced the effectiveness of Ukrainian drones, further hindering their capabilities.
Russia’s improved targeting of Ukrainian supply routes has had a significant impact on logistics, with increased drone strikes influencing the resupply efforts of Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian brigades have had to adapt their tactics to deliver ammunition to the front lines, using armored vehicles, planned routes, and supply-carrying drones in areas under heavy attack. The delivery process has become more complicated, with armored vehicles making fewer trips and drones becoming essential for supply missions. The challenges of resupplying the front lines pose additional risks for Ukrainian troops, especially during troop rotations, when Russian targeting is at its most precise.
Russian targeting during troop rotations has resulted in significant casualties for Ukrainian forces, particularly during the vulnerable hours when units are transitioning between positions. Improved Russian drone surveillance has made it difficult for Ukrainian troops to move without being detected, leading to increased casualties during transport. Ukrainian commanders have highlighted the relentless Russian bombardment, which leaves soldiers with little cover and forces them to run long distances in exposed areas to find safety. The ongoing challenges faced by Ukrainian troops underscore the complexity of the conflict and the impact of Russian tactics on the battlefield.
