The NFL’s media rights deal is the largest in the U.S., totaling $111 billion over 11 years, with an opt-out clause after the 2028-29 season for all media partners except Disney. This clause also affects the “Sunday Ticket” package, currently held by YouTube for about $2 billion. With the ability to potentially reshape the media landscape in 2029, the NFL could move some games away from broadcast TV to streaming platforms such as Netflix, Google, Apple, and Amazon, which have superior balance sheets and global reach. However, the current evidence suggests that the NFL is unlikely to make this move, as TV ratings for football on CBS, Fox, and NBC are strong.
Legacy media executives are already contemplating how to compete against tech giants for NFL games in 2029. Ideas range from incremental changes, like adding a third Sunday afternoon package, to radical shifts such as replacing Sunday Ticket with a college football model where every game has a national audience. Streaming technology has made it possible to host multiple games simultaneously, potentially allowing the league to make more money by selling game packages to various media partners. However, having multiple games compete against each other nationally may be less lucrative for both media companies and the league.
The NFL has been proactive in partnering with various media companies to expand its reach. Beyond YouTube and Netflix, the league has deals with Amazon for Thursday Night Football and has games exclusively on Amazon Prime and NBCUniversal’s Peacock. The NBA, in contrast, limited its media packages to three to simplify consumer choices and combat subscription fatigue. The NFL’s rights decisions are crucial in the American media industry and will impact major media and entertainment decisions in the coming years.
The rapid pace of change in the media industry means that 2029 could potentially mark the end of the modern media era. Streaming platforms have gained significant traction, with Disney+, NBCUniversal’s Peacock, Paramount+, and Max all launching within the past five years and amassing over 300 million subscribers combined. By 2029, streaming services could become even more dominant, prompting the NFL to consider moving some games away from traditional broadcast TV. The league is likely to explore various options and conduct a detailed analysis to determine the most lucrative approach for its media rights.
With the potential to completely overhaul the media landscape, the NFL has the opportunity to leverage its popularity and valuable content to secure lucrative partnerships with tech and broadcast partners. The league’s willingness to work with both types of partners sets it apart from other sports organizations like the NBA, which limited its partnerships to reduce consumer confusion. The decisions made regarding the NFL’s media rights will have significant implications for the media industry as a whole and will be a key topic in the coming years. It remains to be seen how the NFL will navigate the changing media landscape and make decisions that will maximize revenue and reach among viewers.
