A recent poll conducted by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs indicates that Peach State voters may be leaning towards President Donald Trump. The survey shows Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by a margin of 47% to 44%, with 7% of respondents undecided. This lead is just within the margin of error, but if it holds, Trump could potentially win Georgia’s 16 electoral votes in the upcoming election. This would mark a shift from the 2020 election, where Trump narrowly lost the state after winning it in 2016.
Despite some volatility in Georgia polls throughout the campaign cycle, the AJC survey holds significance as voters’ opinions appear to be more solidified. According to the data, fewer than 3% of committed voters are considering changing their vote choice. Harris has made some gains compared to a previous poll, where Trump led Biden by a wider margin. However, Harris is still underperforming with key subgroups, including only garnering 86% support within her own party and 77% support among black voters. Additionally, a significant 12% of black voters remain undecided, suggesting that Trump’s efforts to appeal to this group may be effective.
In light of Trump’s recent reconciliation with Republican Governor Brian Kemp, the former president seems to be consolidating his support base in Georgia. More than 90% of GOP registrants support Trump, who also enjoys strong support among white voters and a majority of senior citizens. Despite this, there are some positive signs for Harris, including a perception among some Trump supporters that she is likely to win the election. A plurality of poll respondents predict a Democratic victory, with 48% believing that the Democrats will emerge victorious.
The RealClearPolitics average currently shows a very close race in Georgia, with Trump leading by just 0.2%. However, this average does not include the latest AJC poll results, which suggest that Trump may have an edge in the state. It is worth noting that the 2020 election saw a tight contest in Georgia, with Trump losing by a narrow margin. With both candidates making a strong push in the final stretch of the campaign, the state’s 16 electoral votes could play a crucial role in determining the overall outcome of the election.
Overall, the latest poll results from Georgia indicate a potentially shifting landscape in favor of President Donald Trump. While Kamala Harris has made some gains compared to previous polls, she still faces challenges in key demographic groups. Trump’s efforts to appeal to black voters and consolidate his base among Republicans and white voters appear to be paying off. With a close race predicted in Georgia, both campaigns are likely to intensify their efforts to sway undecided voters and secure victory in this crucial battleground state.
