Chris LaCivita, a senior adviser for Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign, recently revealed that he believes the former president has a chance to flip two traditionally Democratic states in his favor in the upcoming election. These states are Virginia and Minnesota, where internal polling conducted by Trump’s team suggests that Trump could potentially win. In Minnesota, Trump leads President Joe Biden by 3 points, while in Virginia, Biden only has a 4-point lead over Trump. This data challenges the assumption that these states are safe Democratic strongholds, and LaCivita believes that Trump has a real opportunity to expand the electoral map in his favor.
However, while Trump’s internal polling shows promising results in Minnesota and Virginia, public opinion polls paint a different picture. Public polling data indicates that Biden is still leading Trump in both states, albeit by a narrower margin than in the 2020 election. In a recent KSTP/SurveyUSA poll in Minnesota, Biden was ahead of Trump by 2 points, with a margin of error of 4.9 percent. Similarly, a poll conducted by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College in Virginia showed Biden leading Trump by 4 points. These public polls suggest that while the race in these states may be closer than in previous elections, Biden is still the front-runner.
In the 2020 election, Biden won both Minnesota and Virginia by significant margins. In Minnesota, he secured over 230,000 more votes than Trump, continuing the state’s blue streak that dates back to the 1976 election. Similarly, Biden won Virginia by over 450,000 votes, maintaining the Democratic stronghold that has solidified in the state over the past two decades. Despite these recent victories, LaCivita and Trump’s team are confident that the political landscape has shifted in a way that could benefit Trump in the upcoming election, allowing for potential victories in states that have traditionally favored Democrats.
The implications of Trump potentially flipping states like Virginia and Minnesota in the 2024 election would be significant. If Trump were to win these states, it could reshape the electoral map and give him a clearer path to victory in the overall election. This prospect is concerning for Democrats, who have relied on winning states like Minnesota and Virginia in recent elections to secure the presidency. The competitive nature of these states underscores the importance of every vote and the unpredictable nature of modern American politics.
As the 2024 presidential campaign unfolds, the focus on swing states and traditionally Democratic strongholds like Virginia and Minnesota will intensify. The results of internal and public polling will continue to shape the strategies of both the Trump and Biden campaigns as they vie for support in these critical battlegrounds. The potential for Trump to succeed in flipping these states adds an element of uncertainty to the election, making it a crucial race to watch as the candidates make their case to the American electorate. Ultimately, the outcome of the election will hinge on the decisions of voters in states like Virginia and Minnesota, who will play a pivotal role in determining the next occupant of the White House.
