Tuesday’s primaries in Maryland and West Virginia proved to be critical in determining the balance of power in Capitol Hill, with former Republican governor Larry Hogan winning his party’s nomination for the Senate seat. Hogan’s cross-party appeal and sharp criticism of Trump make him a unique candidate with the potential to shake up the Senate map. However, recent elections have shown that voters are increasingly voting on party lines rather than for individual politicians, posing a challenge for Hogan in a solidly Democratic state like Maryland.
The Senate may be getting even more Trumpier, with West Virginia Governor Jim Justice winning the GOP nomination for the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Joe Manchin. Justice’s victory signals a shift towards Trump’s direction in the Senate, regardless of whether the GOP gains additional seats. Like Trump, Justice has faced legal controversies and strayed from GOP orthodoxy, but his folksy demeanor and support for the bipartisan infrastructure bill have endeared him to West Virginia voters.
Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley continues to garner support from Republicans who are hesitant to vote for former President Trump. Despite not being a candidate for the GOP presidential nomination, Haley received significant votes in West Virginia and Maryland, indicating a portion of the Republican base still wants to vote against Trump. However, it’s unclear if these votes will have a significant impact in the general election, as some may just be Democratic voters participating in the GOP primary to protest against Trump.
In response to Biden’s handling of the war in Gaza, some disillusioned Democrats have urged primary voters to cast ballots for “uncommitted” where available. While the percentage of these votes was relatively low in Maryland, about a fifth of the Democratic electorate in West Virginia chose other candidates, indicating dissatisfaction with the incumbent president in a state that has shifted sharply to the right. Despite these protest votes, Biden won handily in West Virginia, highlighting the challenges he may face in retaining support in ancestrally Democratic states that have moved towards the right.
Overall, Tuesday’s primaries in Maryland and West Virginia have set the stage for pivotal races that could impact the balance of power in the Senate. With candidates like Larry Hogan and Jim Justice shaking up the Senate map, Democrats are facing increased pressure to defend their seats in states that lean towards the GOP. As the election season continues, the outcomes of these races will play a crucial role in shaping the political landscape leading up to the 2024 election.
