Democrats are growing anxious about public polls showing former President Donald Trump making unprecedented inroads among Black and Hispanic voters. These surveys consistently show Trump leading President Joe Biden nationally and in key swing states. Trump’s lead is based on significantly improving among voters of color, running better among Blacks and Hispanics than any Republican presidential candidate in decades. There is a debate about the accuracy of these numbers, and the important question is whether Trump can sustain this support as more voters learn about his aggressive agenda on race-related issues.
Trump is benefiting politically from energizing his base of White social conservatives with ideas such as the largest deportation drive against undocumented migrants in American history while attracting historic numbers of non-White voters on other issues, particularly the economy. Biden’s chances would improve if Democrats can raise concerns in minority communities about Trump’s most militant proposals and rhetoric. Winning back voters of color, especially Hispanic voters, may be the most important thing Biden needs to do to recover in the upcoming election.
Both national and swing state polls show Trump drawing more support from Black and Hispanic voters than any Republican nominee since at least 1960. However, some Democratic pollsters question the accuracy of these polls. The convergence of long- and short-term trends has brought Biden to a perilous point, with weak support among younger Hispanic and Black voters, particularly due to his difficulty connecting with young voters regardless of race. Inflation has also disproportionately affected Biden’s support among Black and Hispanic voters who live paycheck to paycheck.
The 2024 election poses a challenge for both candidates, with Biden struggling to maintain his support among non-White voters while Trump tries to sustain his elevated level of support in minority communities despite proposing extremist immigration measures. Activists working in Hispanic communities believe Trump’s immigration proposals will damage his standing, but the main message for Hispanic voters is focused on economic contrasts with Trump. As for Black voters, concerns over high prices and Biden’s accomplishments for the community could threaten his support on Election Day.
The central issue for Democrats is to create a contrast between Biden and Trump’s policies for a potential second term, focusing on economic experience under each president. Trump’s fate in 2024 may hinge on whether he can maintain support among Black and Hispanic voters, despite his inflammatory and racist language throughout his political career. Ultimately, the election outcome may depend on how well each candidate navigates the complex landscape of race relations and economic concerns among minority voters.
