The results of the European elections offer a good insight into the current state of political parties and the trends among their voters, although they cannot be directly extrapolated to general elections. The PSOE managed to maintain 30.2% of the votes, down from 31.7% in the previous European elections, amidst a strong offensive from the right-wing parties. However, the territorial results were uneven, with the PP dominating in almost all regions except for Catalonia, the Basque Country, Navarre, and the Canary Islands. This is particularly concerning for the PSOE in Madrid and Andalusia, where the PP secured victories despite the PSOE’s long-standing struggles to field strong candidates.
In Madrid, the PP surpassed the PSOE by 348,762 votes, indicating a significant challenge for the socialists in a region where the PP has been in power for a long time. In Andalusia, the PP secured a smaller lead of 165,857 votes, but Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla achieved his fourth consecutive victory in a region that historically supported the PSOE. The only significant stronghold for Pedro Sánchez remains in Catalonia, where the PSOE won the elections and managed to surpass the PP by 400,000 votes, with an additional 125,000-vote lead in the Basque Country.
Despite its unique characteristics, high levels of abstention, and votes lost to left-wing parties like Sumar, the European elections highlight the PSOE’s ongoing challenge to strengthen its regional presence. The party only governs in Navarre, Asturias, and Castilla-La Mancha, with losses in the latter two regions during the elections. Following significant institutional losses more than a year ago, the party leadership committed to renewing leadership positions and reclaiming lost ground, which has yet to materialize.
The PSOE’s message of normalization, particularly regarding the amnesty law proposal, resonates well in Catalonia, the Basque Country, and Navarre but faces opposition in other regions of Spain. The party’s inability to present the amnesty law as a measure that upholds the equality of all citizens under the law has fueled feelings of resentment not only among citizens but also between regions. As this term was set to address territorial debates, the PSOE finds itself entering this crucial conversation from a position of weakness, highlighting the need for a comprehensive approach to Spain’s plurinational identity that addresses all regions.
Moving forward, the PSOE must work to strengthen its presence in regions where it has historically struggled, such as Madrid and Andalusia, by fielding strong candidates and crafting a compelling message that resonates with voters. The party’s success in Catalonia and other regions where it remains competitive should serve as a blueprint for broader national success. As the regional and local elections approach, the PSOE must prioritize strategic planning and effective communication to regain lost ground and position itself as a viable option for voters across the country.
