The upcoming Basque elections are not of great interest to the Spanish right and left-wing parties to the left of the PSOE. Their main focus is on the outcome for the PNV and EH Bildu, who are currently leading in the polls, rather than on their own potential for success. The lack of attention from the right and the left towards the Basque elections is due to the fact that the candidates are relatively unknown, making party affiliation more important. Additionally, a recent study revealed that for most Basque voters, territorial issues are not a top concern, with healthcare and public services being a higher priority. Despite this, there is expected to be a strong nationalist and independence-leaning majority in the election results.
The PNV’s strong desire to form a government with the PSE, and the latter’s willingness to cooperate, undermines a key attack line used by the opposition against the Prime Minister. The Socialists have made it clear that they will not form a coalition with EH Bildu, despite pressure from the right-wing parties. This rejection of a potential alliance with the independence movement in the Basque Country weakens the right-wing’s arguments and shifts focus to the upcoming Catalan elections. The current conciliatory approach taken by the central government provides a strong platform for the PP to continue their campaigning efforts leading up to the Catalan elections, with the PP likely to continue pushing their agenda in the Senate.
The upcoming Catalan elections and the European elections are of utmost importance for the PP, Vox, Sumar, and Podemos. Recent polls show an increase in support for the PP, suggesting that their opposition strategy may be gaining traction. However, Sumar’s decrease in support, along with the inclusion of Podemos in the polling data, indicates a potential challenge for the left-wing parties in the upcoming elections. The division within the left-wing parties could impact their performance in both the Catalan and European elections, creating a challenge for them to overcome in order to be successful.
Overall, the Basque elections are expected to be overshadowed by the upcoming Catalan and European elections, with the focus shifting towards these more significant events. The lack of interest from the Spanish right and left-wing parties in the Basque elections reflects the current political climate and the priorities of the electorate. With territorial issues ranking lower in importance for Basque voters, healthcare and public services are likely to be key issues in the election campaign. The outcome of the Basque elections is expected to show a strong nationalist and independence-leaning majority, highlighting the unique political landscape in the region.
