In the jungles of southeastern Burma’s Dawna Hills, rebels from an armed ethnic group are fighting to hold back columns of reinforcements sent by the country’s ruling junta to try to reclaim strategic trading outposts such as Myawaddy on the Thai border. The next few weeks in this scramble for key locations in Burma could determine the next phase of a conflict that has been ongoing for more than three years. Since a military coup in February 2021, an armed resistance has emerged, working alongside ethnic minority rebel groups that have been fighting the military for decades.
As monsoon season approaches, both the junta and the resistance are in a race to make gains or hold their ground before the rainy weather hampers military operations, particularly affecting the junta’s air power advantage. The fate of crucial trade and military outposts such as Myawaddy in the southeast and Rakhine state in the west is at stake. The junta is facing significant battlefield defeats since October, losing control of roughly half of its military positions and 60% of territory in ethnic minority areas.
The junta may face continued losses of control in borderlands with neighboring countries such as Bangladesh, China, India, and Thailand over the next six months. While weakened and bleeding troops, the military still possesses firepower to inflict damage and hold onto central lowland regions. However, the Junta’s control may be unsustainable in the long run due to battlefield losses, emboldened resistance, and lack of popular support. The writing appears to be on the wall for the junta’s grip on power.
After losing control of Myawaddy, the military is mounting a counter-offensive to retake the town that serves as a critical border trade conduit. The Karen National Union (KNU) is fighting against junta troops to hold back the assault. In the west, the junta is battling the Arakan Army to maintain control of key regional military headquarters. The impending monsoon rains will complicate the military’s operations, limiting air power deployment and resupply efforts due to poor visibility and hazardous conditions for helicopters.
Military defections across the country have indicated collapsing morale among junta troops due to a lack of essential supplies. While the resistance forces have momentum from recent victories, they currently lack coordination among various ethnic armies and grassroots resistance groups. Facilitating strategic coordination among these diverse groups could be crucial in determining the outcome of the conflict in Burma. The shadow National Unity Government has stated that the junta only retains control over major cities in the central region, with threats looming even there.
