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The New York Times Reports on the Troubled Arab-Israeli Partnership

April 18, 2024No Comments3 Mins Read
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To understand the current confrontation between Iran and Israel, it is important to consider three recent phases of Middle East geopolitics. Phase 1 saw Iran as one of the most isolated powers in the region, with the Biden administration growing closer to Saudi Arabia and Israel signing diplomatic deals with Arab countries. Phase 2 was marked by Hamas’s attack on Israel, which led to global attention on the plight of Palestinians and strained the anti-Iran coalition. Phase 3 began with Iran preparing to retaliate against Israel for the assassination of Iranian military commanders, resulting in a joint response by the anti-Iran coalition that strengthened Israel and weakened Iran.

The question now is how Israel will respond to Iran, as it seeks to deter future Iranian attacks. Iran’s official policy of seeking the destruction of Israel and support for groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis have led to covert Israeli assassinations of Iranian officials. Israeli officials must carefully consider their response to avoid undermining the anti-Iran coalition while deterring future attacks. Options being considered include cyberattacks, targeted assassinations, or strikes on Iranian military bases in other countries, with the aim of isolating Iran rather than Israel.

Arab leaders see Iran as a bigger problem than Israel due to the destabilizing influence of extremist groups funded and armed by Iran. The Houthis have attacked Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E., while Hamas is seen as a terrorist organization by many Arab leaders. This shared view has led to the formation of the anti-Iran coalition, although it remains fragile and can come undone during times of conflict, such as in Gaza. The coalition’s existence is crucial in combating Iranian influence and aggression in the region.

Israel expected a small-scale response from Iran after the strike on the Iranian embassy complex in Syria, but the actual retaliation exceeded expectations. Tehran has evacuated personnel from sites in Syria in preparation for Israeli retaliatory strikes. The situation remains tense as Israel considers its response to Iran’s actions, with the potential for a major response to destabilize the anti-Iran coalition. The ongoing confrontations between Iran and Israel highlight the complex dynamics at play in the Middle East and the need for careful strategic planning by all parties involved.

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