The issue of abortion has become a central focus in American politics, largely driven by the efforts of former President Donald Trump to restrict access to abortion. Trump promised to appoint Supreme Court justices who would overturn Roe v. Wade, which ultimately led to the 2022 Dobbs decision and the enactment of tight abortion restrictions in 21 states. Despite these efforts, polls have shown that the majority of voters trust President Biden more than Trump on the issue of abortion. The debate around abortion is expected to be a key theme in the upcoming 2024 campaign.
The politics of abortion have shifted following the Dobbs decision, with Gallup polls showing that nearly 10 percent of Americans have switched from an anti-abortion position to supporting abortion access. However, Democrats still face challenges in making abortion a salient issue in elections, as many voters have already made up their minds on the issue and prioritize other concerns. Trump, on the other hand, is hoping to appeal to suburban swing voters, particularly college-educated women, by adopting a middle-ground position on abortion.
In the 2022 midterms, several high-profile Democratic candidates focused on their Republican opponents’ roles in restricting abortion access, but ultimately lost their races. This suggests that while abortion remains a significant issue, it may not be a deciding factor for many voters. In a presidential election, where a larger portion of the electorate may prioritize other issues, Democrats may face challenges in galvanizing support around abortion policy.
Trump’s latest stance on abortion, which supports the Dobbs decision but opposes a new federal law restricting abortion, is aimed at reassuring voters that voting for him will not lead to new laws forbidding abortion. However, Trump’s record as one of the most significant opponents of abortion access in American history may still be a point of contention for some voters. As the debate around abortion continues to evolve, it remains to be seen how it will impact the outcome of future elections and shape the political landscape in the United States.
