In the world of football, much emphasis has been placed on “explosive plays” recently, a term referring to big or long plays. While defining exactly what constitutes an explosive play may vary depending on who you ask, there seems to be a consensus on the importance of the explosive play margin, or the difference between the number of these plays made by each team within a game. In fact, stats show that the margin can be heavily indicative of which team wins a game.
This concept is easily demonstrated in a recent Georgia vs. Kentucky match, where Georgia managed to secure a narrow victory despite being outgained in yards. Throughout the second half of the game, Georgia successfully pulled off five explosive plays, while Kentucky only made one. As a result, Georgia’s defense managed to hold steady even as they conceded ground, allowing them to ultimately secure a win.
Explosive play margin continues to prove itself as a strong predictive factor in the 2024 season. In both conference and non-conference SEC play, the team that wins the explosive play margin has a remarkable 32-2 record. The exceptions to the trend, such as Arkansas and Vanderbilt, still hint towards the significance of the margin, as both losses came with substantial penalties or turnovers, indicating other areas of the game impacting the results.
Even with these exceptions considered, the data remain solid. Among SEC teams, those with losing records are largely found towards the bottom of the overall explosive play margin rankings. By comparison, the teams that have a negative explosive play margin and yet maintain a winning record, such as LSU, make up the exception rather than the norm.
Looking back over the seasons between 2019 and 2023, SEC teams with more explosive plays than their opponents had an overall record of 397-72. Here too the data suggest a strong connection between explosive play margin and the likelihood of a team’s victory, with the higher the margin, the likelier the win. Championship-level teams during this period averaged 3.5 more explosive plays than their opponents, while teams that won the national title averaged at least four more.
Finally, the increase in explosive plays appears to correlate with a decrease in the importance of other gameplay strategies. For instance, forcing three-and-outs in an opponent is statistically less effective today than it was in the past. Furthermore, the narrative around possession time is also changing, with many top teams averaging less time of possession than their opponents. This shift in focus towards explosive plays indicates a larger change in the age-old dynamics of football strategy. As the game continues to change and evolve, so too do the factors that decide the outcomes of matches.
