Forecasters are predicting an aggressive hurricane season in 2024, with the state of Florida expected to bear the brunt of the storms. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted 17 to 25 named storms to strike the Atlantic basin, the highest number since predictions began in 1999. Of these storms, eight to 13 are expected to become hurricanes, with four to seven reaching major hurricane status. The NOAA has stated that there is an 85 percent chance of this season being above-normal, compared to the average season of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
Other forecasters, including the Colorado State University (CSU) Tropical Weather and Climate Research Team, have made similar predictions regarding the 2024 hurricane season, which officially begins on June 1. The CSU estimates that there will be 23 named storms and 11 hurricanes, with five of them expected to be major hurricanes. They also predict that Florida has a 96 percent probability of being impacted by a named storm this year, the highest of any U.S. state. Counties such as Palm Beach, Miami-Dade, and Monroe are among those with high chances of facing impacts from hurricanes, based on historical data.
The surge of new residents to southern Florida in recent years, with 137,000 relocating to Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties since 2020, has raised concerns about the potential impact of the upcoming hurricane season. This influx of population, combined with the predictions of multiple forecasters, highlights the increased risk faced by Florida this year. Forecasters at the University of Pennsylvania and North Carolina State University have offered additional estimates for the number of named storms expected in 2024, reflecting the widespread concern over the severity of the upcoming hurricane season.
Former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach County, Florida, has been a focal point of discussions surrounding the potential impact of hurricanes this season. With Palm Beach County having a 61 percent chance of being impacted by a named storm, Trump’s estate is at risk of facing the brunt of the storms. Other states along the Gulf and East coasts, such as North Carolina, Louisiana, Georgia, Texas, and Alabama, also have high probabilities of being struck by named storms this season. The combination of these forecasts raises alarm bells for residents and authorities preparing for the impact of hurricanes in the coming months.
Given the history of Florida being hit hard during hurricane season, the increased risk posed by the predictions for 2024 has prompted heightened preparedness efforts by residents and officials. The potential for 33 named storms, as predicted by forecasters at the University of Pennsylvania, and estimates of 15 to 20 storms by researchers at North Carolina State University underscore the urgency of planning and response measures ahead of the hurricane season. With the start of the season approaching, the focus on Florida and other at-risk states is intensifying, as stakeholders work to ensure readiness and resilience in the face of potential natural disasters.
