Canadians can expect warmer-than-normal temperatures to continue into the fall, with above-average conditions forecasted for September and October across the country. The dominant air masses and air flows coming up from the United States are influencing these warmer conditions. While cooler stretches of weather are also expected throughout fall, especially in more southern parts of the country. Central and eastern provinces have experienced the driest weather all year in September with above-average temperatures, and those patterns are expected to continue in much of the region.
After a lull in the Atlantic hurricane season, activity is starting to increase, especially for regions like the Maritimes in Atlantic Canada. It remains to be seen if any remnants of tropical storms make their way to the region, potentially bringing heavier rain in the fall season. Prairie provinces like Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba will continue to experience warmer-than-normal conditions to finish off September and going into October. Normal amounts of precipitation are forecasted for the Prairies. British Columbia can expect above-average temperatures on the coast, with some periods of cooler and warmer weather, while much of the West is expected to stay above average in temperatures.
The Pacific Ocean currents are currently in a neutral pattern, but there is a possibility for La Niña to develop in the coming months, which could influence fall and winter weather conditions. During La Niña years, trade winds are stronger and water temperatures become cooler near the equator, leading to wetter and colder conditions in northern U.S. and Canada. La Niña is expected to provide some forecast challenges due to being a weaker signal. Fall foliage is influenced by temperature and precipitation, with warm, sunny days and cooler nights being ideal for a good display of fall colours. The current dry and sunny stretch in some regions may delay the changeover of fall leaf colours, but there is a favourable forecast overall.
In terms of fall weather patterns for different parts of the country, central and eastern provinces can expect above-average temperatures to continue, with a lack of typical fall storms in much of Eastern Canada. The Prairies will see warmer-than-normal conditions with normal amounts of precipitation, while British Columbia is expected to have above-average temperatures on the coast and Lower Mainland. For parts of Yukon, more seasonal conditions are expected to finish off September, with above-normal temperatures forecasted for northern regions in October. The influence of La Niña could play a role in fall and winter weather conditions, potentially bringing wetter and colder conditions to northern U.S. and Canada, as well as an active hurricane season. The current forecast is looking favourable for a good display of fall colours, with the absence of steady fall storms that can blow leaves off trees.
