House lawmakers have once again passed legislation that could lead to a nationwide TikTok ban, which poses a significant threat to the company’s US operations. This move could force TikTok to find a new owner or be banned from the United States entirely. The bill initially gave TikTok six months to sell, but now it has been extended to roughly nine months, with the possibility of further extensions if progress is made towards a sale. The bill has gained support from key lawmakers who were previously skeptical and was inserted into a larger foreign aid package by House Republicans to make it more difficult for lawmakers to oppose.
Senators may try to remove the TikTok legislation from the foreign aid package, but it is unlikely to happen as quickly approving the aid is a top priority. Instead, the entire package is expected to be considered in a single vote, increasing the odds of Senate passage to as high as 80%. Once approved by the Senate, the bill will go to President Joe Biden’s desk for his signature. If signed, the 270-day clock for TikTok to find a buyer will start, potentially resulting in users being cut off if it fails to separate from its Chinese parent company, ByteDance.
TikTok could challenge the legislation in court, as the bill has been criticized as unconstitutional by TikTok and various civil society groups. They argue that it violates users’ First Amendment rights to access information. Legal experts suggest that a bill censoring TikTok users may be rejected by the courts, but it remains to be seen if the recent updates to the bill will help it survive. A court challenge could lead to the measure being temporarily blocked during litigation, which may span several years. However, if a temporary injunction is not granted, TikTok will have to act quickly to comply with the law.
One of the main challenges facing TikTok is that its parent company, ByteDance, is subject to Chinese law, which opposes a sale. China has export controls governing algorithms, potentially including TikTok’s recommendation engine. If China does not allow ByteDance to relinquish TikTok’s algorithm, it could hinder the sale or force it to be sold without the key algorithm that drives the app’s popularity. The question of whether TikTok can still succeed without its algorithm remains unanswered and could determine the future of the company in the event of a forced sale. Without the algorithm, TikTok may struggle to retain its 170 million US users and could face significant challenges moving forward.
