The government has until September 30 to present the General State Budget for 2025 to Congress. This deadline of less than five weeks depends on the Catalan independentists, led by Junts, to approve the spending ceiling that sets the foundation for the public accounts each year. The progressive coalition of PSOE and Sumar aims to approve the Budget, but there are concerns about a possible budget extension. The current Budget, from 2023, is expansive due to European funds, so an extension would not be a major issue. Junts previously disrupted plans by rejecting the stability path at the end of July, casting doubt on their support for the new Budget.
The government acknowledges its parliamentary minority and the challenges it faces in garnering support for the Budget. President Pedro Sánchez formed a diverse alliance with nationalists, left-wing and right-wing Catalans to win a continuation in office last November. However, recent developments, such as the amnesty law, have created more obstacles for the government. Junts has shown an independent streak since the amnesty law was enacted, complicating the situation further. The government must navigate these challenges, particularly with Junts’ unpredictability on key issues.
The absence of upcoming elections provides some respite for Sánchez, who has a clear run for the time being. However, the changing political landscape presents uncertainties regarding the Budget approval. The government is not willing to pass the Budget at any cost, especially if it risks rejection by the independentists. The context surrounding a Budget rejection and the subsequent extension without the need for snap elections is very different from the situation in 2019. The PSOE’s weak position and the reluctance to call for early elections underscore the importance of reaching a Budget agreement.
The PSOE is unlikely to receive support from the PP for the spending ceiling, adding another layer of complexity to the Budget negotiations. The potential impact of a parliamentary defeat like the one in July could result in significant funding cuts for autonomous communities and municipalities. The regions governed by the PP would be especially affected by such a scenario, putting pressure on party leaders. The continued political uncertainty and the need for support from various factions highlight the challenges faced by the government in securing Budget approval.
In conclusion, the government’s task of presenting and passing the General State Budget for 2025 is approaching a critical phase, with the deadline fast approaching and uncertainties surrounding key political alliances. The dependence on Catalan independentists and the unpredictable nature of their support pose significant challenges. The political landscape, characterized by shifting dynamics and a fragmented parliament, further complicates the budgetary process. The government’s ability to navigate these challenges and secure Budget approval remains uncertain, with potential consequences for public funding and political stability.
