Some independentist parties in Spain do not pose an equal threat to the unity of the country. The influence of parties like Bildu, Junts, ERC, PNV, and BNG on the government of Pedro Sánchez may be exaggerated, as their aspirations for self-determination have become increasingly unfeasible. In places like the Basque Country, for example, despite the strong presence of pro-independence parties, only a small percentage of the population actually supports independence. The focus of these parties has shifted towards issues like affordable housing, climate change, and combating the far right, attracting a new generation of voters more concerned with social issues.
These parties may proclaim independence as their goal, but lack the necessary support among their voters to make it a reality. In the Basque case, where economic autonomy through the Concert Economico system has mitigated calls for secession, not all voters fully subscribe to the separatist ideology. The question arises whether this “folkloric” independence could also manifest in Catalonia post-procés. While Catalonian voters overwhelmingly support independence, political incentives and leaders’ fear of reprisal (as seen in requests for pardons) have tempered the possibility of renewed conflict.
The Catalonian separatist movement now appears more focused on maintaining the idea of an independent state as a distant utopia, without actively pursuing its realization. While pro-independence parties may claim to be working towards their goals, their actual day-to-day governance may resemble traditional autonomism rather than concrete steps towards secession. The support for independence among their base may fluctuate based on social or instrumental factors, and while the movement remains latent, it could be rekindled under certain circumstances.
The demographic shift in Catalonia, with younger generations showing less interest in independence compared to older generations, further complicates the prospect of a resurgence in separatism. The peak of the procés movement was reached among voters now around 30 years old, who came of age during the push for Catalan independence. As historical catalysts like economic crises and strained relations with the Spanish government recede, the future of the independence movement in Catalonia hinges on how the state manages the situation moving forward.
After a decade of independence process in Catalonia, Spain has learned that whether the movement remains folkloric or resurges is largely dependent on the government’s approach to the issue. As social and political dynamics continue to evolve, the potential for separatism in regions like Catalonia and the Basque Country will be shaped by a combination of historical context, demographic shifts, and the strategies employed by political leaders on both sides of the independence debate.
