According to a recent survey by the CIS, socialist Salvador Illa is projected to win the elections on May 12th in Catalonia, with the PSC expected to gain between 39-40 seats in the Parliament. Carles Puigdemont’s Junts party would come in second with 28-30 seats, followed by Esquerra Republicana with 27-28 seats. The independence forces are far from being able to revalidate their majority and may have to depend on the results of Aliança Catalana to come close to it. The current composition of the Parliament would see gains for PSC, while Junts and Esquerra Republicana would lose some seats.
The survey indicates that the PSC is leading in terms of voter intention with Illa at 20.9%, followed by ERC at 14.5% and Junts at 12.5%. Other parties such as PP, Vox, Comuns Sumar, and CUP are also projected to have representation in the Parliament, while Ciudadanos is expected to disappear from the political scene. There is also a possibility of Aliança Catalana, a xenophobic party, gaining representation with 0-2 seats, potentially impacting the balance of power in the Parliament.
The inability of Junts, ERC, and CUP to secure an absolute majority leaves room for Illa to potentially become the President of the Generalitat through alliances with other parties. The survey suggests that Illa could potentially form a government with either Junts or ERC, but a coalition similar to the one that led to the election of the socialist mayor of Barcelona, Jaume Collboni, may not be sufficient for his investiture.
The survey conducted by CIS, which sampled over 8,900 people and was carried out between April 11-22, aligns with other recent polls showing Illa in the lead, followed closely by Pere Aragonès and Carles Puigdemont. The survey also reflects public opinion on the performance of the current Catalan government, led by ERC, with almost 60% of respondents considering it as “bad or very bad”.
The survey also highlights a level of indecision among voters, with 16% of respondents still unsure about who they will vote for on May 12th. The performance of parties like PSC and Junts in the opposition has received mixed reviews, with the PSC being viewed more favorably compared to Junts by a significant portion of respondents. Additionally, the survey delves into perceptions about the impact of the proposed amnesty law on the situation in Catalonia, with varying opinions on its effects on social cohesion.
