The dominance of the PNV in the Basque Country is being questioned, as EH Bildu is projected to be the most voted party in the Basque elections on April 21 according to the latest polls. This would be the first time that the abertzale coalition would come out on top, with a narrow margin of 34.2%-35.1% of the votes, overtaking the PNV which has traditionally governed the Basque Country since the restoration of democracy, apart from the term of socialist lehendakari Patxi López (2009-2012). The PNV is estimated to receive between 32.6% and 33.5% of the votes. The potential victory of EH Bildu would create an unprecedented political scenario, although the polls do not predict the exact distribution of seats that would be obtained in the Basque Parliament. The PSE-EE is expected to remain as the third force with 13.3%-14.1% of the votes, followed by the PP with 6.7%-7%. Left-wing parties Elkarrekin-Podemos and Sumar are also projected to enter the Basque Parliament with 3.1%-3.2% and 3.1%-3.6% of the votes respectively, while Vox’s results remain uncertain, with a predicted 2.7%-3% of the votes.
In the previous poll released on April 1, the PNV was expected to win, albeit with a small margin over EH Bildu. The party led by Imanol Pradales had an estimated 36.1% of the votes, almost three percentage points higher than the abertzale coalition (33%). Together, they accounted for two-thirds of the seats in the autonomous Parliament, a representation similar to the one resulting from the previous elections in July 2020. This advantage translated into a higher projection of seats for Pradales’ party, which was expected to obtain between 30 and 31 seats out of the 75 in the Basque Parliament, similar to the current 31 representatives. EH Bildu, with Pello Otxandiano as candidate for the regional presidency, was expected to experience a significant increase from their 2020 results, surpassing their current 21 seats. The previous poll estimated them to achieve between 28 and 29 seats. The PSE-EE and PP were predicted to maintain their 10 and 6 seats respectively, allowing the coalition government between the PNV and socialists, in place since 2016, to potentially continue.
EH Bildu’s candidate is the most highly rated with an average of 5.51 out of 10 points, followed closely by the PNV candidate with a score of 5.47. No other candidate received a passing grade. The socialist candidate Eneko Andueza scored 4.70, followed by Miren Gorrotxategi from Podemos with 4.41, Alba García from Sumar with 3.93, and Javier de Andrés from the PP with 2.79. The least favored candidate was Vox’s Amaia Martínez with only 1.96 points. In terms of trust and confidence, Otxandiano is the candidate that inspires the most trust according to 22.8% of the respondents, closely followed by Pradales with 22.6%.
The potential victory of EH Bildu in the upcoming Basque elections signals a shift in the political landscape and challenges the traditional dominance of the PNV in the region. With the possibility of a change in government and the entry of new parties into the Basque Parliament, the dynamics of regional politics may undergo significant transformation. The performance and public perception of candidates from different political parties will play a crucial role in shaping the outcome of the elections. As voters make their decisions, the issues facing the region and the campaign strategies of each party will undoubtedly impact the final results. The outcome of the elections will not only determine the composition of the Basque Parliament but also set the course for the region’s future direction and governance.
